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Wall Street Probe:
On Oct/19 four weak candles were a plunge, but no crash on a 'black' Friday. The market slumped after until the low in end of November, as in many years. The uptrend after was classical as well, but it turned out to be very flat only. The new year starts with a plunge of four weak candles - three weak candles opening for the broad market's Wilshire a new year are a bad harbinger for the first quarter, especially since they destroy the support at the low of December and even that lower one of November. This means that the flat uptrend since is terminated as well. Thence stability and even new strength only would become true with stability in this fourth week of 2007 and strength from the third week of January onwards. This doesn't happen - we are scared! Last week a flux of weak candles turned the trend drastically downwards, thirteen weak ones and after the break of Monday three weak and a neutral one continue the swoon, even Wednesday two strong ones are no rescue yet. But Thursday's three neutral, for the NASDAQ even a strong one with some kind of strong three-day-bottom pattern, promise stability now, Friday's three weak ones and a neutral candle are neutralised with this week's six strong but also two weak ones.Before the watershed of Oct/19: The year 07 started with a continuation of the uptrend of 2006 and the longterm one since early 2003. The flat uptrends with few corrections continued up to the plunge of the last trading day in February - black Tuesday, adding up too many corrections into a big one. Then the uptrend was resumed until the plunge of late July, started by the subprime crises. The uptrend was resumed again in August, Oct/19 turned out to be no crash. Although the bond markets behaved like crash before, the preperation for a crash didn't suffice, especially because of strength of the worlds stock markets in the first half of October - weakness in these three weeks being essential for a 20 years anniversary of the grand 87 crash. Since everybody was prepared well for this situation, Friday Oct/19 slumped, but the sellers bought their stocks back already on Monday afternoon.
Our
Wall Street Probe mimicks the old Dow theory from 1880, according to which transport stocks must justify the broad market. We substitute transport stocks by Hightech stocks and the Dow by the Wilshire 5000 Equity, which is no index, but Wall Streets market capitalisation. The Hightechs are described by three indices. NASDAQ 100 and AmEx Composite are Hightech-leaning, the Pacific Hightech Index 100 is a pure Hightech index. Note the low correlation of the AmEx Composite to the others.