- daily analysis / TagesAnalyse   The NASDAQ Com­posite continued in 2007 the long rise since 2003 up to the longterm high end of July, the two major corrections before enforcing the uptrend considerably. The plunge of August indicated a 20 year anniversary of the Oct/1987 crash, but the steep rise after the low in mid August overwhelmed the resistance at the year-high. End of October the index broke out of a strong bottom pattern with a very strong candle to a new year-high, but this strong breakout was ridiculed by two weak candles. Then another attempt with two strong ones failed, starting a slump. December finally turned the shortterm trend up again, a fall out of a shortterm top pattern stopped by three strong candles and steep neutral ones. But the six plunging weak ones over the yearend start another deep correction, continued last week - after past Monday's strong one, three weak ones, with a neutral one in between. A neutral and two strong ones after the break are a little more support, Friday's weak and even negatively engulfing one neutralised by Monday's strong one. Tuesday's is higher, but weak only.

The PSE Hightech 100 Index continued the steep rise of end of 2006, with two major corrections in February and early summer, until the longterm high at 1020 on Oct/18. It tried another breakout end of October, so Oct/19 had little influence on the trend. But this attempt failed end of October, a first plunge throwing the index back below 1000. Even a sudden rise failed again with a plunge out of deep weak candles. After a low end of November, December somehow managed to turn the trend up again. Two neutral candles and a strong one rebuilt support at 920. But the new uptrend was terminated by a breakdown below the 'neckline' at 940 of a weak top pattern. But six plunging weak candles over the year­end destroy any support since the summer, and the plunge over prec­eding weekend is a breakdown out of a dangerous midterm 'descending triangle'. Any attempt for stability is overwhelmed by seven weak candles, Thursday's neutral one in between enforced by this week's hopeful two strong ones, destroying the falling resistance line over the downtrend of this year.

TecDAX Deutschland: continued in 2007 the steep uptrend since summer 2006, interrupted by two major corrections, until the new longterm high of early November. The watershed of Oct/19 even resulted in a breakout to strength, which, however, failed with a plunge of many weak daily candles, occasionally lonely neutral ones or even a strong one in between without any stabilising effect. The weakness ended end of November with a low, when a series of six neutral or strong candles turned the trend up again. This uptrend is terminated by six weak candles over the yearend, starting a slump, overwhelming preceding Monday' strong candle with a series of five weak ones after, Monday's even a plunge. Tuesday's strong one is neutralised by Wednesday's weak one - Thursday's strong one by two weak one over the weekend. But Tuesday's neutral one promises stability.

The  I T 20 Index Paris continued in 2007 the steep uptrend of 2006 until July, with a major correction in spring. But the summer terminated this uptrend with a steep decline, ending in turn before the watershed of Oct/19th with a sideways trend. Since the high in late October, with three weak candles a weak three-days-pattern at that high, didn't reach that one of January/February, a huge top pattern was building up. Even a few neutral and strong candles were not enough to prevent three weak ones breaking the 'neckline' of which at 4700. The slump after was terminated end of November, but the short uptrend ran out in December, which moves sideways only. A correction failed to breakout, seven weak candles even attacking the support at 4600. A weak candle was neutralised by two strong ones closing the year. But these two strong ones are swallowed by the first four plunging weak ones of 2008 in a fall out of a dangerous 'descending triangle', the 'neckline' below destroyed. Past Monday's neutral candle positively engulfs the weak one before. Tuesday's weak one leads to a strong one after, but the four weak ones over preceding weekend are a plunge, executing a top pattern. Thursday's strong one is neutralised by Friday's weak one, but this week's two strong ones enforce the support below considerably.


Top left on this page our daily Wall Street Probe:    On Oct/19 four weak candles were a plunge, but no crash on a 'black' Friday. The market slumped after until the low in end of November, as in many years. The uptrend after was classical as well, but it turned out to be very flat only. The new year starts with a plunge of four weak candles - three weak candles opening for the broad market's Wilshire a new year are a bad harbinger for the first quarter, especially since they destroy the support at the low of December and even that lower one of November. This means that the flat uptrend since is terminated as well. Thence stability and even new strength only would become true with stability in this fourth week of 2007 and strength from the third week of January onwards. This doesn't happen - we are scared! Last week a flux of weak candles turned the trend drastically downwards, thirteen weak ones and after the break of Monday three weak and a neutral one continue the swoon, even Wednesday two strong ones are no rescue yet. But Thursday's three neutral, for the NASDAQ even a strong one with some kind of strong three-day-bottom pattern, promise stability now, Friday's three weak ones and a neutral candle are neutralised with this week's six strong but also two weak ones.
   Before the watershed of Oct/19: The year 07 started with a continuation of the uptrend of 2006 and the longterm one since early 2003. The flat uptrends with few corrections continued up to the plunge of the last trading day in February - black Tuesday, adding up too many corrections into a big one. Then the uptrend was resumed until the plunge of late July, started by the subprime crises. The uptrend was resumed again in August, Oct/19 turned out to be no crash. Although the bond markets behaved like crash before, the preperation for a crash didn't suffice, especially because of strength of the worlds stock markets in the first half of October - weakness in these three weeks being essential for a 20 years anniversary of the grand 87 crash. Since everybody was prepared well for this situation, Friday Oct/19 slumped, but the sellers bought their stocks back already on Monday afternoon.





The longterm view   In March 2003 the crashing breakthrough was avoided in the very last moment - a breakdown could have brought down Wall Street to the starting point of the rallye since 1995.
   Massive support by many weak days and candles on the way up since March 2003 pays out worldwide, since every such level turns itself into a support level. The stock markets implement much security on the way up since, such that even the mid 2006 plunge and that of black Tuesday end of February 2007 were trampolined. Even Oct/19 this year, in the week before and after, turned out to be no 20 years' anniversary of the crash 1987, August's plunge being only a sheet lightning. Conversely, the Hightech markets started November considerably stronger from a technical point of view, the erratic behaviour of the international bond and commodity markets starting to press onto the stock markets only in the second week of November.

26. Jan 2008 - ShortTermAnalysis / KurzFristAnalyse - Update on Weekend  NASDAQ    In 2007 the market resumed the longterm uptrend since 2003. After the deep correction in late summer, Oct/19th was a minor correction only, building up a strong bottom pattern. But this was misleading, which revealed a dangerous three-weeks-pattern, ending below the breakout level 2700 of the summer. Therefore a neutral, a strong and a positively engulfing steep neutral weekly candle in November, and a steep strong one in December were a relief, building up support. But the second weak one of December together with the five plunging weak ones over the yearend execute a dangerous top pattern by a breakdown - a steep neutral one in between and any support from the second half of 2007 being overwhelmed. We are scared. Both moving averages devil cross each other in January and decline in tandem.





The Hightechs technically behave in the same way, resuming in 2007 the longterm uptrend since 2003 with two major corrections inside - until the high on the day before Oct/19. Even the two weak weakly candles after held the high level. November's second weak plunging candle terminated the shortterm strength abruptely, the third neutral defended 950 as support, the fifth steep neutral one positively engulfed a weak one. December's first steep strong one, even if enforceing support, is negatively engulfed by the second weak one. The steep neutral one before and the five weak ones over the yearend execute a huge top pattern of type 'head with declining shoulders' by a breakdown. A devil's crossing of the two moving averages was bedeviled by an angel's one in early October, but there was another devil's one in December. We are scared!




The TecDAX resumed in 2007 the longterm uptrend and rose after deep corrections to a new longterm high above 1050 in the second week of November. Oct/19s weak weekly candle and the steep neutral one supported the strength. However, November's first two higher neutral ones were too soft an attack onto the resistance above - two weak ones after plunged out of nothing. The steep neutral after and December's first strong one were a relief, overwhelming the resistance at the high of July. But two steep neutral ones before and after Christmas were overrun three weak ones in 2008, executing a 'diamond' pattern downwards. The neutral one after is not of type one-week-reversal. The two moving averages start to decline in tandem and devil cross each other. The latest correction downwards took us by surprise. We are scared since the index now has annihilated any support of the second half of 2007.

The I T 20 Index Paris resumed the longterm uptrend in the first week of 2007, but then turned around to a steep downtrend. The longterm uptrend only was resumed after black Tuesday end of February, with a new longterm high already in June. The decline after, with a plunge in August builds up a threatening top pattern, even the relative strength during the Oct/19 fight being no help against. Three weak weekly candles in November built up pressure onto the support level - the 'neckline' - of this huge top pattern, two strong ones after destroying any support from 2007 - despite sitting low enough to be of type one-week-reversal. December's first strong one and the second weak one remained inside the midterm downtrend since July. The strong weekly candle before Christmas was no hope for support inside this downtrend, which is transformed into a plunge by four weak weekly candles over the yearend. The two moving averages devil-crossed each other in September and decline in tandem. However, the strong fourth weekly candle of 2008 is of type one-weak-reversal!

   The large distance to the all-time-highs of 2000 far above reveals a tremendous backlog of the european internet - or of the european use of the internet and this means less productivity for the european economies - ,internet' takes place outside Europe!



          very  Strong  ( + )  or  Weak  ( – )  Stocks  are

Dat 04    Rating   ChartRating      Price         Stock + TickerSymbol
Jan/23   +16     +6         39.60 $      J P Morgan Chase   JPM
Jan/23   +14     +6         59.29 $      Morgan Stanley D W   MWD
Jan/23   +14     +6         84.63 $      Lehman Brothers   LEH
Jan/23   +13     +6         59.73 $      Merrill Lynch   MER

Jan/22   +14     +5         78.42 $      Quest Diagnostics   DGX
Jan/19   +15     +5         41.85 $      Saint Paul   SPC
Jan/16   +15     +6       271.77 dKr   Danisco    DAO
Jan/13   +19     +6         87.00 nKr   Stolt Nielsen    SNI

Dec/30   +15     +6         57.81 $      United Healthcare Gr   UNH
Dec/30   +14     +6         99.67 $      Procter & Gamble   PG
Dec/15   +14     +6         42.99 $      Equitable Resources   EQT
Dec/15   +14     +6         25.35 $      Esterline   ESL
Dec/15   +15     +4         26.94 $      Hawthorne Financl   HTHR
Dec/15   +14     +6         10.95 $      Ikon Office Solution   IKN
Dec/15   +14     +6         65.93 $      Ingersoll-Rand   IR
Dec/15   +15     +6         39.58 $      Kellwood   KWD
Dec/12   +14     +4         15.93 $      Chattem   CHTT
Dec/11   +12     +6         24.67 $      West Marine   WMAR
Dec/11   +12     +6         25.02 $      U R S   URS
Dec/10   +13     +5         74.20 $      PraxAir   PX
Dec/10   +13     +4         38.90 $      United Fire & Casual   UFCS
Dec/10   +15     +6         29.17 $      Universal Forest Prod   UFPI Dat 03    Rating   ChartRating      Price         Stock + TickerSymbol

   ^{[ REC-Archive ] and Disclaimer ( Warning )    [ Start ]}

   Because of the strong chart patterns since October 2004 in all countries, first in the US, then also in Europe and Japan, we still recommend to buy stocks around the world. After the deep correction of May and June 2006, the uptrend gained momentum, continuing right into the third quarter 2007. We didn't believe in a crash in the first or second quarter 2007, black Tuesday end of February being a correction only. But even Friday Oct/19 didn't crash, too many market participants being too well informed - contrary to the 1987 crash - selling on Friday morning, but bying back one Monday evening. At most Oct/19 starts a correction of the longterm uptrend since mid 2002.
  Thus Friday Oct/19/2007 turned out to be no 20 year's anniversary!

1. Jan 2008 - Monthly Midterm Analysis

NASDAQ: In 2007 the uptrend of the second half of 2006 is resumed by breaking out from a strong bottom pattern. February's weak and even negatively engulfing candle led to the strong one of March and the steep neutral one of April, the strongest possible three-months-pattern. Thence May's steep strong candle is no surprise, but June's weak one of type ,hang man' led to July's weak one, terminating the steepest version of the uptrend since 2006. A late rallye turned August's candle strong, and September's strong one builds up a very strong three-months pattern with October's steep strong monthly candle the logic ferocious breakout to high strength, resuming the uptrend since 2003 convincingly. So November's weak candle is a correction of the long uptrend since 2002 only, December's neutral one tries to end this correction.

1. Jan 2008 - Quarterly Longterm Analysis

NASDAQ: Since early 2003 the market rises, often even steeply, only occasionally interrupted by weak quarters. After a strong three quarter-chart pattern, the weak candle of 2007's first quarter is wiped off by 2007's second steep neutral one, and also the higher strong candle of the third quarter continues the longterm uptrend since 2003. The fourth quarter's weak but higher candles is no threat to the longterm uptrend yet.




 

The Hightechs continued in 2007 the uptrend of the second half of 2006 by breaking out of a strong bottom pattern in April. May's candle was strong, a breakout to a new seven-years-highs, so the three weak monthly candles after are a negative surprise. But this is overrun by the two steep strong candles of September and October, terminating any threat to even the steepest version of the uptrend since early 2006. Hence the last two weak monthly candles of 2007 are a correction of the long uptrend since 2002 only, albeit a deep one, testing strong support.

The Hightechs show the same steep rise since early 2003, the few weak quarters in between being corrections only, after which the uptrend is resumed. A strong three quarters-chart pattern in 2006 leads to a first neutral candle in 2007, trying to breakout to a new longterm high from a strong bottom pattern. So the second quarter's steep neutral candle breakout is no surprise and the higher candle of the third quarter even is strong. The fourth weak quarterly candle of 2007 still fits into the sharply defined longterm upwards trend channel - no threat yet.

TecDAX Germany: The huge correction of the whole year 2005 led to a steep breakout in 2006 with two steep neutral candles. But then a series of five weak monthly candles threw the index back even below 600. The sudden rise after with six steep strong and neutral candles broke out to new five-year-highs above 800 in then a very strong midterm chart pattern, with February's weak candle positively engulfed by March's steep strong one. April's steep neutral one destroys any resistance of the last six years, the May and June candles are strong again, continuing the bull run. July's weak one is neutralised by August's strong one, September's strong one even builds up the strongest version of a strong three-months chart pattern. Hence October's steep strong candle is a classical charttechnical consequence and November's weak one a trend enforcing correction, as also the strong one of December proves.

TecDAX Germany: In the first quarter of 2006 a neutral quarterly candle overwhelmes all resistance of the last five years, breaking out to new longterm highs, from a convincing strong bottom pattern. But even if this successfully resumes the uptrend since 2003, after a broad correction - the distance to the all-time highs of 2000 is huge and discouraging and the weak candles of QII and QIII 2006 throw the index back onto the breakout level. The steep neutral candle of QIV resumes the uptrend since 2003, attacking the strong resistance at the year-high. 2007's first two steep neutral quarterly candles are a breakout to bridge the still huge gap to the absolute highs of the year 2000, and the third higher quarterly candle is strong again. The fourth higher weak one with extremely long shadows is a sign for hesitation after such a long longterm intact uptrend.

The I T 20 Index Paris likes steep long trends - in early 2006 up, in the second quarter down with four ,black ravens' and in the second half 2006 steeply up again. In January 2007 a steep neutral candle even tried to break the resistance of early 2006, but February's weak candle fell back below. This weak and negatively engulfing candle is wiped off by March's strong one, April's steep neutral one building up the strongest possible three-months-pattern. Thence the steep neutral May candle is no surprise. But the two weak monthly candles after are, throwing the index down even below the magic level 5000, terminating the steepest version of the longterm uptrend since early 2006. August's strong monthly candle is negatively engulfed by September's weak one. This in turn is neutralised by October's steep neutral one, but November's deep weak one increases the threat of a huge dangerous top pattern considerably, December's weak one being a breakdown of which. Does this market finally decouple from the still intact uptrends of so many Hightech markets?

The I T 20 Index Paris behaves similar to the german TecDAX, but the uptrend since early 2003 isn't as steep. The candles of QII and QIII 2006 are weak, negatively engulfing two preceeding ones. Hence the steep neutral candle of QIV restarts the uptrend since 2003 by attacking the year-high. After a strong three quarters-chart pattern, 2007's first weak quarterly candle marks the upper bound of a strong bottom pattern. But the steep neutral candle breakout of the second quarter, classical chart theory, is ridiculed by the weak and even negatively engulfing candle of the third quarter. And the fourth weak one is pressing onto the longterm uptrend since 2002, which now is at risk. This markets needs strength in the first quarter of 2008 most.




 

- daily analysis / TagesAnalyse


Technology Scandi­navia     After a deep correction in the summer 2006, the index resumed the long uptrend since 2003 even over the year end 2006, the same pattern evolving in 2007: The steep rise since mid August destroyed any resistance of 2007, climbing to a new year-high in end of October, defying a short correction over the Oct/19 watershed. Two steep neutral candles attacked the resistance there a second time, but failed with a plunge in mid November. A strong candle at the bottom - but not one of type one-day-reversal (we didn't see no such trend reversal all over the world) jumpstarted a rallye. But this failed to cover lost territory in December, which led to another deep correction. Preceding Wednesday's steep strong candle launched an attack onto the upper boundary of a strong bottom pattern, four weak ones attacking the support at the low of November fought off by four neutral ones over the Christmas break and two higher strong ones closing the year. A strong one strong one positively engulfs the first weak one of 2008, but then a flux of weak candles throws the market downwards. Preceding Tuesday's too high a strong one is negatively engulfed by Wednesday's weak one, two neutral ones positively engulfing both - a sign for strength, Monday's weak one neutralised by Tuesday's neutral one.

The AIM 100 Index (UK) resumed the midterm downtrend in early November, after failing to regain lost territory above 5500 since the high of 2006 above 6500. An abundance of weak daily candles, a lonely neutral one in between, was stopped only by psychological support at 5000, which trampolined the market up, making this support a charttechnical one too. But the gain was not enough, this barrier staying in a shooting distance. The bottom pattern of the first half of December failed with six weak candles over the weekend, ridiculing past Tuesday's strong one, destroying the support at 5000 of November in an intact shortterm downtrend. The week before Christmas nearly has capsized down this ship in treacherous waters, a strong and a neutral candle building up support, two higher weak ones over the Christmas break overrun by a steep strong and a steep neutral one, a breakout from a strong bottom pattern. The new year starts with two rising strong ones, but then six weak ones turn the trend down again, breaking a support level at 4900. Preceding Monday even plunged with another two weak ones after. Two neutral ones after enforce the support, Monday's weak one being positively engulfed by Tuesday's neutral one.

The Internet Wall Street shows the same chart pattern of the majority of the world's hightech markets, resuming in 2007 the long uptrend since 2003, with a major correction in 2006. The plunge started in end of July was terminated in mid August by a steep rise, leading to a new longterm high end of October with a strong breakout with two strong daily candles, overcoming easily the Oct/19 scrutiny. In November a sudden plunge drove the index down to 27, a weak candle even plunging out of a dangerous 'descending triangle'. But then suddenly support was built up below 27, a strong candle and two neutral ones after, a weak one in between, enforcing this support - the market rose again. A strong candle even managed a breakout, but the bottom pattern was such distorted, that this breakout failed with eight weak candles in line. For keeping the chance for a strong bottom pattern alive we need more strength in the new year than even four steep neutral ones over Christmas, a strong one in between - since eight weak ones over the yearend are a ferocious breakdown out of a 'double top' of two months duration, destroying any support since August. Past Monday's strong one is swallowed by four weak ones after - a plunge. A neutral and two strong ones build up first support, but the two candles over the weekend are weak again.

  Internet Europe: This chart pattern now is the weakest one among the world's hightech markets, the year-high of end of February 2007 sitting considerably lower than that one of the preceding year 2006. So the long uptrend since 2003 meanwhile is terminated. The uptrend resumed in March only led to a march sideways close to 185 until the plunge of August finally turned the trend downwards. Attempts to stabilise the support around 160, with even an intraday attempt to breakout still in November, are under pressure from ten weak candles, plunging the index even below 150. From there a new uptrend was started, but without one-day-reversal, which means we remain cautious. This uptrend ran out with four weak candles and a dangerous 'rounding top' pattern. Two strong candles after Christmas are overrun by the four plunging weak ones of the new year. A strong one is swallowed by seven weak ones - preceding Monday's plunge in between overwhelming the last support. Three neutral ones, Monday's weak one in between, increase the support.



 

26. Jan 2008 - ShortTermAnalysis / KurzFristAnalyse - Update on Weekend

Technology Scandinavia  (top left)   2007's steep rise, abruptely interrupted end of July, was resumed after and led to a new longterm high with a steep neutral weekly candle end of October. Thus four weak ones of November are disappointing, attacking and destroying the strong support at 1280, the 'neckline' of a top 'head with shoulders'. But now, after having fallen to the technical target of this top pattern, a strong candle enforces the support, despite sitting too high to be of type one-week-reversal. So December's first two weak ones are no threat - but to regain strength we need more than the steep strong weekly candle before Christmas and a steep neutral one closing the year. Even if this is swallowed by the first three weak ones of 2008, annihilating the chance for a broad bottom pattern and the stability since August by a breakdown. Last week's strong one is of type one-week-reversal, but is located such untypical, that we remain scared. September devil's crossing of the two moving averages was cancelled immediately by an angel's ones - misleading, since now there is a devil's one again. Both now decline in tandem.



The AIM 100 Index (UK) (top right) plunged end of July and in August 2007. But then the market turned around to strength, failing to continue the gains only in early November. The plunge of November even attacks the support at the year-low of August. A strong weekly candle at 5000 was situated too high to be of type one-week-reversal. Two weak ones after launch an attack onto the support level 5000. But the strong one before Christmas and the steep neutral one after form a strong three-weeks-pattern of our logo type, executed by the first neutral one of 2008. But this failed' The second weak one staying above this psychological barrier, the third plunging weak one annihilates any support of the second half 2007. Last week's strong one tests the technical target downwards and is of type one-weak reverrsal. Note how narrowly an angel's crossing of the two moving averages failed in November. We remain scared because the midterm trend is downwards and the two averages decline in tandem.




The Internet Wall Street (bottom left) resumed in 2007 the long uptrend until the high of end of July, with two major corrections in between. The slump after led to a new steep rise with a new longterm high end of October. Oct/19th' weak weekly candle and the steep strong one of the week after were a pull back onto the broken old top, followed by a breakout, which, however, is ridiculed by two weak weekly candles, a dangerous three-weeks-pattern, the second weak and even plunging candle of which even negatively engulfing six weeks before. The neutral weekly candle after is support, November's fourth weak one is positively engulfed by the fifth steep neutral one. Since December's first neutral one, enforcing the support against a huge top pattern, is negatively engulfed by the weak second and third ones of 2008, this threat is executed, the steep neutral one before Christmas being overwhelmed by five weak ones since. This is a plunge out of a dangerous top pattern, breaking massive support, and because the two moving averages decline in tandem and devil cross each other we are scared!





The   Internet Europe (bottom right) resumed in 2007 the midterm uptrend of late 2006, but then didn't reach the high of 2006 again. Hence a new longterm downtrend evolved. October's higher first weekly candle was weak only - but the second neutral one was a steep breakout. Oct/19th weak weekly candle was neutralised by a strong and a neutral one after, the chance for a strong bottom pattern not yet terminated by November's weak and negatively engulfing second one. The weak third one led to a plunge, destroying any support since months, terminating even the longterm uptrend since 2003 with a devil's crossing of the two moving averages in early August, both declining in tandem again. November's fifth weekly candle and December's first one were strong and even steep, but the weak one after fit into the longterm downtrend. Even two steep neutral ones closing the year were no rescue, since the last one of 2007 was negatively engulfed by the first three weak ones of 2008, destroying any support from the second half 2007. However, the fourth weekly candle of 2008 is strong of type one-week-reversal and tests the technical target downwards - hope for stability, but the declining long moving average defines a stable mid- and longterm downtrend and both averages decline in tandem!

1. Jan 2008 - Monthly Midterm Analysis

  Scandinavian Technology continued in 2006 the long uptrend since 2002, corrections in between. However, in 2007 January's weak monthly candle reenforces the resistance at 1200, February's candle being weak as well, but positively engulfed by March's strong and April's strong candles, building up the strongest possible three-months-chart pattern. Thence May's strong candle was no surprise. June's and July's weak candles led to August's lower strong one, making the correction of the longterm uptrend since 2003 a strong one. September's steep neutral one completes a very strong three-months pattern of our logo type, so October's steep strong candle breakout is classical chart theory. The last tow weak monthly candles are a negative surprise, but no threat to the longterm uptrend yet.

1. Jan 2008 - Quarterly Longterm Analysis

The The Scandinavian Technology started a long uptrend in early 2003, only occasionally interrupted by weak quarters. 2007's first quarterly candle was weak only. The breakout to new highs above 1200 thus was delayed somewhat. 2007's second steep neutral candle breakout is classical chart theory and the third higher quarterly candle is very strong again. So the tiny weak one of the fourth quarter remains inside the longterm uptrend channel and is no threat yet.




 

The AIM 100 Index (UK) develops a downtrend since jumping above 6500 in spring 2006 - because of failing to destroy the resistance at 6000 and falling down in summer 2006. The uptrend started with the strong monthly candle of October 2006 ran out in the summer 2007 with two weak monthly candles at the top and then the plunging weak one of August. Two strong ones after couldn't prevent the plunging weak one of November, but December's strong monthly candle relieves pressure off the support level 5000. But it remains inside of the downtrend channel started in summer 2007.

The AIM 100 Index (UK) moves sideways since compilation in mid 2005. The steep rise up to mid 2006 even above 6500 was turned around to a deep decline below 4500 in September 2006. But then a very strong three-quarters-pattern of type inverse 'head with shoulders' drove the market up again, however, running out below 6000, the weak candle of the third quarter 2007 negatively engulfing that of the second one, fighting to defend 5000 in late 2007. The weak one of the fourth quarter closes still higher than 5000, but there remains pressure onto this magic psychologic level.

Internet Wall Street: The whopping strength of the second half of 2005 was terminated with the weak plunging candle of May 2006. The strength was resumed in the second half 2006 and continued in 2007, interrupted in the summer by a steep correction. The three weak monthly candles of which were positively engulfed by September's steep neutral candle, reestablishing the uptrend since early 2003. October's steep strong candle is a breakout to a new longterm high. But since August's candle was weak only, there is no strong three-months-bottom pattern, so the final two monthly weak candles of 2007 are no technical surprise. But so far they only are a correction inside the longterm uptrend channel.

Internet Wall Street: The long rise since early 2003, sometimes interrupted by weak quarters, in 2006 even by two weak ones, continues into 2007 with a neutral candle for QI, fighting for 25, and a steep neutral candle breakout in the second quarter. The higher strong candle of the third quarter keeps the longterm uptrend intact, now relatively even stronger as the other trends in the Hightech world, and the weak one of the fourth quarter is a correction inside the longterm uptrend channel only.

 

Internet Europe: After the whopping rise of 2005 the strength continued until mid 2006, when two weak monthly candles and a weak three-months-top pattern started a downtrend from the all-time-high, which still prevails. Strength in the second half of 2006 led to another top in early 2007, but far below that one of the year 2006. Even two strong monthly candle, a weak one in between, couldn't prevent a series of meanwhile six weak monthly candles, that one of July a deep plunge. Then four monthly candles try to build up support, but they are weak. So the strong one of December is a big relieve, positively engulfing these four weak one. But this market remains the weakest one in the world's hightech universe.







 

Internet Europe: The long uptrend since early 2003 was twice interrupted by major corrections, one in 2004 and one in 2006, which led to a turn around to strength by the neutral and positively engulfing candle of QIV in 2006. 2007's first quarterly candle is a steep neutral one as well, but the second quarterly candle is weak only. The huge distance to the high of 2006 above 200 even is enlarged by the third quarter's weak candle, and the weak one of the fourth quarter continues to frighten the longterm uptrend since 2003, although a deep lower shadow being fought off. This market continues to lag the strength of the other Hightech markets considerably.

  Note that in Europe the distance of the Hightechindices to their all-time-highs of 2000 more than doubles that of the Hightechs in Wall Street.

  We see the internet lagging in Europe and even retreating - try to find internet stocks in the Eurostoxx 650! This has a negative contribution to productivity and growth in Europe - especially the internet tax in Germany since 2007. The attempt to wrest the internet from the Americans is absurd.