The International Interest Rates consolidate the huge price gains of the last six months. There is only one market, where this news hasn't arrived yet - Denmark. Even the Dollar ones stop the deep decline of the yields, those of british gilts and australian yields now in the lead. But even in UK the falling trend channel of the average yield remains intact.
   The short rates of the international money markets continue to follow suit - now by stabilising the fallen levels. But ahead of the american growth estimates later today, it is undecided if America has a problem with growth or with inflation only.

30. Jan 2008    Summary:  The flight out of risk and into quality is stopped, for public bonds as for stocks. But there are no sus­tainable turn around chart patterns yet - just stability against further drastic moves downwards is increased.

   The short rates of the international money markets start to consolidate their huge drop, but the momentum upwards is considerably smaller than for the capital markets of long maturities. For Dollar and Yen the downtrends remain intact.

The International Interest Rates continue to decline, breaking strong resistance levels for bondprices substantially. At the helm the Dollar ones, driven down by the Fed, trying to help the banking sector and revive lending.


   The short rates of the international money markets continue to follow suit downwards - even those of Euro and Yen. We see the turmoil in the financial sector at its climax in February and its end only in early June.

23. Jan 2008    Summary:  The flight out of risk and into quality continues and drives worldwide public bond prices up and stocks down. Except for Switzerland central banks loosen their grip fur­ther. The yield spreads continue to decline against the Dollar, this decline even accelerating. This increases the pressure onto the support of the Dollar against the Euro, built up in the new year.
   The short rates of the international money markets even accelerate their decline in the new year, although those of Euro - and Yen - decelerated somewhat by the reluctance of the ECB to support the battered financial sector.

The International Interest Rates continue to decline, with clear chart patterns in the anglosaxon currencies, and increasing pressure onto the barriers in the european ones. Thus the yield spreads continue to collapse over all maturities against the US-Dollar, making a decline below its low of 2007 against the Euro possible. Meanwhile one weak day will suffice.


   The short rates of the international money markets follow suit downwards, the Dollar ones in the pole position. The breakout to new highs in December for Euro and Yen thus are ridiculed.

16. Jan 2008    Summary:  The turmoil in the financial markets continues to drive the international bond markets up, at least those of government bonds and highest grades. The Fed's stand against the credit crunch paves the way, the ECB's reluctance to do the same being no threat. The new year made out of a small stream out of the battered stock markets a broad river into the bond markets.
   The short rates of the international money markets even accelerated their decline in the new year. Meanwhile the Euro ones destroyed the resistance at the low of October as well, those of the Yen trying.

The International Interest Rates continue the trends of the second half of 2007 - even steeper than in the last weeks of 2007. There now are clear breakdowns for the anglosaxon interest markets, with the exception of Australia, where political considerations keep the average yield in a stable uptrend. US-, british, canadian and the yields of New Zealand now have destroyed strong resistance levels for the bond prices, opening the potential for further gains for bond owners. Due to the ECB's stand against inflation, the trends of the european bond markets still are more reluctant. Here the decisive resistance levels still barr the easy way up, but the tourmoil of the financial markets in the first days of the new year, look at the stock markets, suddenly increase the pressure onto these levels by the flight of money into save havens - from stocks into bonds and there from higher to lower risks.


   The short rates of the international money markets continue to decline steeply, meanwhile even for those of the Euro and the Yen, although there still a little less steeply. Whence yields spreads against the US-Dollar still increase their decline.

9. Jan 2008    Summary:  Turmoil in the financial markets in the new year drives bonds up, yields down, especially long maturities with their high mathematical leverage. But we think that substantially rising commodity prices are the main threat to the economies - hence inflation in the western and the BRIC economies (with the exception of Japan). This limits the potential of further gains for bond prices, fostered by the Fed's march downwards.

   The short rates of the international money markets continue to decline, in the new year even attacking the resistance levels for Euro and Yen of mid December, long since overwhelmed in the two anglosaxon markets. The subprime morass and the reluctance to lend inside the financal industry - the Fed still is fighting against - adds to the collapse, at least for better risks.
   The Fed's fight against the ailing mortgage market and the ECB's fight against inflation drives the yield spreads against the US-yields down, hence makes it difficult for the Dollar to defend the watershed 1.50 against the Euro.

The International Interest Rates continued their uptrends, although only moderately so since the steep corrections since the summer. But in the last trading day of 2007 an unusual decoupling took place. UK gilts surged, their long maturity yields broke through the neckline of a huge top pattern, which is a charttechnical signal for more gains of gilt owners ahead. On the other side, australian long maturites suffered exactly the opposite. In between yields of the other currencies. The american and canadian bond markets staying closest to more price gains, european ones conversely pointing to more losses for bond owners. For instance the italian, german, dutch and austrian interest markets are giving clear signals upwards by breaking massive support lines, the others building up dangerous chart patterns.

   The short rates of the international money markets continue to fluctuate by suddenly reversing the midterm uptrends. The two anglo­saxon - together with the scandinavian - ones collapse, rocketing gains for long positions in their futures. European and japanese short rates follow suit a little hesitatingly, but at least breaking the rising resistance lines below the rates of the last six months.

2. Jan 2008    Summary:  No warping over the year end. The longterm uptrend of the international yields continued to the end of 2007, but only subdued in the second half because of huge corrections. With a clear decoupling - which is unusual and there­fore will not prevail into the second quarter. Long maturities for the anglosaxon interest markets remain close to a turn around downwards, except for the australian one, where singular polit­ical considerations may drive yields up. Whereas european yields may rise this year substantially, probably not driven by higher growth but by inflation and higher commodity prices - here are the 'nohaves'.
   The short rates of the international money markets continue to fluctuate, end of the year turning substantially downwards.
   Here the subprime morass - basicly american made, but now probably also british, irish and spanish - sends further bubbles to the surface. At unpredictable locations, like more german public sector banks, but also american counties.
   We think that the worldwide plunge of financial stocks will end only in the summer 2008.

The International Interest Rates continue to rise, tiny corrections downwards for some markets - like the New Zealand one - not enough to stop this dangerous development yet. Meanwhile even the norwegian average yield turns up again, reversing a nice major breakdown below a strong resistance level.

   The short rates of the international money markets suddenly reverse their midterm uptrends, thus continuing against the movement in the opposite direction of long yields of the capital markets. But only for Sterling there is a sustainable top pattern, for the Euro since this week at least the hope for a engulfing two week's pattern. For the other two money markets this just is a correction of too steep shortterm uptrends.

19. Dec 2007    Summary:  In the last trading daya the resistance against further gains for the international bond markets has be­come stronger, but only for a few markets the midterm down­trends since the summer of the average yields already are broken. So the chance for more gains in the bond markets not yet totally is terminated.
   The short rates of the international money markets continue to decouple from the long yields of the capital markets, but mean­while move downwards worldwide. This is a sign for worldwide relieve from the subprime crisis. However, we doubt that the credit crunch will be solved in the first quarter of 2008 already, the number of bubbles from this morass only declining slowly.

The International Interest Rates stop the downtrends since June, abruptely changing the direction. But there are differences. For most the downtrend still is intact, the rise being corrections only. Especially for the american bond market, which has gone too far, such that a drastic correction is overdue. For the norwegian interest market the downtrend remains untouched. But there are two exceptions on the other side of the globe. The australian average interest rates fiercely the two longtime highs of this year - in an uptrend which never has been at rist. The New Zealand average rate still is a little off from there, but on Tuesday broke out of a dangerous bottom pattern.

   The short rates of the international money markets have resumed the old uptrends, those of the Euro at the helm above the top of earlier in the year 2007, those of the Yen following suit. But the other two anglosaxon ones consolidate the surge since the summer.

12. Dec 2007    Summary:  The resistance against further gains for the international bond markets now becomes inpenetrable, mainly because of the american bond market having gone too far.
   But the economic facts contradict the universal coupling of the interest markets. In the two summer quarters, real growth on an annualised basis was whopping + 4.30 % for the US, + 2.06 for the Eurobloc, meager +1.88 % for Germany. Japan even was in reces­sion by - 0.18 %, accompanied by a half year deflation of - 0.21 %, made visible only after the first revision of the original publica­tion. The US-GDP deflator was + 1.76 %, the EUR one + 2.24 %, Germanys BIP deflator + 2.04 % - nothing to worry about.
   The short rates of the international money markets decouple, the two anglosaxon ones swallowing bubbles of the mortgage morass, which in the UK now only start to surface. Those of Euro and Yen climb steeply.

The International Interest Rates stop the downtrends since June at strong resistance levels, after having arrived at charttechnical targets - with the exception of the canadian average yield, which resumes the downtrend against this resistance.

   The short rates of the international money markets have resumed the old uptrends, attacking or - as for the Euro - even having crashed the strong support, built up by the correction of September and October. Those of the Dollar have to fight down strong support, which may last into the first quarter of 2008.

5. Dec 2007    Summary:  The resistance against further gains for the international bond markets doesn't seem to be inpenetrable. To resume the downtrend for yields we need further bubbles in the subprime morass.

   The short rates of the international money markets continue to rise substantially, even against strong support, those of the Euro in the lead. Obviously nobody trusts in the wisdom of the ECB, which neglects the international credit crunch against the threat of inflation.

The International Interest Rates continue the downtrends, resumed in mid October. US interest rates are in the lead, but meanwhile have arrived at the technical target downwards, taking the uptrend of Sep­tember / October as a correction half way down. But for the other inter­est markets, european as well as anglosaxon ones, there still is down­wards pressure. Only two markets still defy gravity - in Australia and New Zealand. Both still are reluctant to terminate the uptrend, that is to reverse the huge losses for bond owners, amassed in the last two years.
   The short rates of the international money markets continue to climb, without any exception. Dollar short rates don't move upwards with the same velocity. So Dollar yield spreads continue to decline substantially against most currencies.

28. Nov 2007    Summary:  Bubbles in the subprime morass still surface at unexpected locations, thus strengthening the internat­ional bond markets - the american one even drastically. World­wide there is a flight into save havens. So bond prices rise steep­ly, whereas stock prices suffer. But at least for Dollar bonds the technical targets now are arrived at, a correction being overdue.

   The short rates of the international money markets reversed strength into weakness and now continue to rise substantially. Since yield spreads keep on falling against the Dollar, there is no chance for an end of the Dollar's decline, which now has fallen to all-time-lows against Euro, DM and Swiss Franc.

The International Interest Rates entirely terminate the strange decoupling. American yields continue to decline steeply, but now are close to the charttechnical target downwards, taking the uptrend of September and October as a correction half way down. European yields, including those of british gilts, follow suit with the same charttechnical interpretation, having broken strong resistance levels for the bond prices, thus starting the second leg of a downtrend. Even the swiss yields don't execute dangerous bottom patterns. There remains only one exception in Europe - swedish yields, which still try to resume their uptrends. Outside Europe, canadian yields behave exactly like european ones, and even the two oceanic interest markets stop the upwards pressure and reward bond owners with sudden gains.
   The short rates of the international money markets execute bad news - the whole pack starts to climb again substantially. Despite this, the Dollar's yield spreads against the Euro continue to decline substantially.

21. Nov 2007    Summary:  Subprime woes once more enforce the international bond markets - especially the american one, which now is at the helm, driving yields downwards. The europe­an interest markets follow suit, and even the interest rates of Australia and New Zealand now change direction, reversing losses into gains for bond owners. But the technical target for Dollar denominated yields now is nearby.


   The short rates of the international money markets reverse strength into weakness by rising suddenly substantially. We don't see any fundamental reason for this. There is no inflation pressure at the moment - the GDP-deflators of the third quarter remain low and commodity prices decline. The only interpretation is a technical one - deep trends like those since September are hard to swallow without corrections.

The International Interest Rates try to terminate the strange decoupling. American yields continue to decline, but now the european ones follow suit. The short march downwards has revealed obvious top patterns, resulting in bottom pattern for bond prices. Resistance levels are attacked or even destroyed, at the helm denish and dutch bonds freeing the way for more gains for bond owners. Even british gilt yields turn downwards. Outside Europe the bottom patterns for yields of the anglosaxon dollars are in danger to fail, canadian yields already behaving like european ones. Solely those of Australia and New Zealand are in danger of more losses for bond owners.

    The international money markets of short rates resume their strength, at least Dollar ones resume the downtrend. The others try to stabilise the downtrends, which, however, still remain intact. So for short rates the yield spreads resume their march against the Dollar, this being an indication that the long uptrend of commodity prices also hasn't come to a stillstand yet - bad news for the world economies.

14. Nov 2007    Summary:  We doubt that the decoupling of the international bond markets will endure - and it is more likely, that the lonely strong one of the USA will join the others uptrend, than conversely. In the USA the subprime woes still prevail, but with the ongoing solution of the credit woes merely by time flux, inflation worries will overtake. The only question is whether this will happen in 2007 already. We estimate that bubbles of the credit morass will surface up to the second quarter 2008.
   Bad news - from the credit morass - is good news for the credit markets: A quarterly GDP-deflator of 0.19 % for the third quarter annihilates the untolerable inflation of the first quarter 2007 to virtually nothing - only a little more than a black zero. Therefore US interest rates, especially the short ones of the money market, are bound to fall and the Fed may not only interrupt but even end tightening for a new cycle. Another old wisdom for the credit markets is - the first honey bee (Fed steps downwards) never is the last one.

The International Interest Rates decouple in a way we havn't seen in this millenium yet. Dollar bonds still gain, technical targets not yet being arrived at. On the other hand, there are the two very weak interest markets in Australia and New Zealand, followed suit now by the first european one, Sweden. For australian bonds there even is no more support at all, whereas for the other two ones still massive support zone may decelerate losses for bond owners somewhat. The other european markets march in between, with the downtrends for the interest rates still intact, but decelerated by support levels.

    The international money markets of the short rates continue their strength, but now the roles have changed. Whereas the Dollar and Sterling rates have to consolidate their steep decline, Euro and Yen rates continue to fall.

7. Nov 2007    Summary:  We doubt that the decoupling of the international bond markets will endure - and it is more likely, that the lonely strong one of the USA will join the others uptrend, than conversely. In the USA the subprime woes still prevail, but with the ongoing solution of the credit woes merely by the time flux, inflation worries will overtake. The only question is whether this will happen in 2007 already. We estimate that bubbles of the credit morass will surface up to the second quarter 2008.
   The short rates of the major money markets still show no sign of a reversal of the decline, even if those which have gone too far have to consolidate. The change of the leading position should contribute now to some stability for the US-Dollar, but a trend reversal here too is unlikely. The Yen on the other hand will continue to suffer.

The International Interest Rates fiercely fight against the weakness - in the lead the american ones, which destroyed a threatening bottom pattern by falling considerably below the low of August. But the Fed's decision to loosen its grip a second time abruptely stopped the way down on Wednesday, which immediately leads to an enforced strong bottom pattern for the average australian yield, threatening to breakout to weakness again, after declining deeper than a mere trend enforcing pull back onto a broken breakout level. This indicates that the bond markets take the Fed's step downwards as a final move to help the markets to curb the subprime woes.
    The international money market short rates continue their strength, with the Dollar ones declining steeply after correcting upwards the first wave downwards of September. Even Euro rates continue to decline. Note that first time since the early 90th we think that inflation is a threat to the economies worldwide - except in Japan - even if the US GDP-deflator for the third quarter falls to an unexpected low level.

1. Nov 2007    Summary:  The dangerous overall chart picture of the international interest rates is resumed for the first two bond markets - in Australia and New Zealand - where the Fed's rate decision of Wednesday leads to a weak day for the bond markets, nearly completing dangerous bottom patterns for the average yields. The other interest markets have fought off successfully those chart patterns, two of them - the US and Denmark - even with a major breakthrough to new lows. But this now is in danger to fail, ridiculing promises of more gains for bond owners. So the Fed's loosening step, underpinned by the low GDP-deflator of 0.19 % for the third quarter, turns out to enforce the inflation woes.


   On the other hand, the short rates of the major money markets in the US and the Eurobloc continue to decline - in the lead the american ones, which leads to further weakness of the US-Dollar.

The International Interest Rates fiercely fight against the weekness - in the lead the american ones, which destroyed a threatening bottom pattern by falling considerably below the low of August. But also european interest rates have fallen below the low of August, although not as decisively as the Dollar rates. Even the australian ones decline deeper than a mere trend enforcing pull back onto a broken breakout level.
    The international money market short rates continue their strength, with the Dollar ones declining steeply after correcting upwards the first wave downwards of September. The Yen rates have broken through a major resistance level (of prices of bonds of short maturities). Even Euro rates continue to decline, trying to establish a downtrend channel. But this probably is against the intention of the European Central Bank, which will join the Bank of England to curb upcoming inflation in early 2008, when the subprime credit woes will be gone. Note that first time since the early 90th we think that inflation is a threat to the economies worldwide.

24. Oct 2007    Summary:  The weak overall chart picture of the international interest rates now is under scrutiny, the chances for bond owners originating in the US ones' relatively strength of bond prices. Note that the first shot at US growth is due to be published.
   The heavy losses for bond owners - at least until Oct/19 last week - are abruptely terminated since Thursday. The way up for bond prices corresponds exactly to the worldwide behaviour of bond prices in October 1987. But as the fear of a stock crash has dwindled since Monday night, the new uptrend for bond prices may turn out to be shortlived and the fear of inflation may again take the lead.

   The short rates of the major money markets continue to decline - with the exception of the british ones, where inflation scrutiny and the fear of a continuation of the subprime credit crunch outweigh each other.

The International Interest Rates continue to build up dangerous bottom patterns. Even the US ones now have completed a bottom pattern, although not one of the dangerous type as those of the european interest markets. Still in the lead is the autralian market, where a breakout to new interst highs has stabilised the stable uptrend channel of the last two years.
    The fluctuations of the international money market short rates may be revived. There is mounting pressure onto the resistance built up for the Dollar money market after the plunge of September. Even the Euro money market starts a substantial decline. The british and japanese one do not reveal enough resistance against following suit, although the pressure downwards has been reduced somewhat.

17. Oct 2007    Summary:  The international interest rates conti­nue to build up ugly bottom patterns, thus threatening to follow suit the australian interest rates upwards.
   This amounts to heavy losses for bond owners - at least until Oct/19 this week, when there is the chance for a black Friday for the stock markets. For bonds this means that there is the chance to regain these losses at least partly and for a limited time. This is the bond scenario of summer and autumn 1987.

   The stability of the short rates of the international money markets may turn out to be short lived. This time there is pressure downwards even for Euro-denominated ones.

The International Interest Rates continue to build up dangerous bottom patterns, swiss yields in the lead, with the bottom pattern already terminated by a major breakout upwards. But for the other european currencies the final correction downwards still isn't terminated. Even the Dollar ones have turned up since Monday, with the projection of a dangerous bottom pattern as well. There are two exceptions: British gilt yields continue to decline, whereas australian yields already broke out to new longterm highs, thus leading the pack in the wrong direction.
    The fluctuations of the international money market short rates have terminated, they are stable now. With the exception of the british ones, which steeply decline further, even trying to erase all rate gains since the summer.

10. Oct 2007    Summary:  The international interest rates conti­nue to build up dangerous bottom patterns, with australian ones already breaking out upwards, which means heavy losses for A$-bond owners. Since Monday even the US bond market threatens to build up a dangerous turn around chart pattern. The risk in the chart pattern is best seen for swiss yields.


   The short rates of the international money markets return to a unified picture, stabilising. For the Dollar even all losses since summer 2006 have been erased. The exception is the Pound Sterling, where a housing crises is looming.

The International Interest Rates interrupt the upwards moves since early September after the steep corrections downwards of the long uptrends since the second half of 2005. There is some danger, that these corrections are only shortlived to develop the final corrections of dangerous bottom patterns. This bleak picture prevails for the majority of the currencies, the US $ being an - important - exception. There the downwards move is much less dangerous, it even may resume the deep fall since the summer. But the Dollar - long or short - rates at the moment are somewhat decoupled from the rest of the pack.

    The fluctuations of the international money market short rates come to an end. Those for the Euro resume the rise, bedevelling the shortlived decline of September. For the Dollar the deep fall has come to an end as well, but not yet for the Pound Sterling. The Yen's short rates are just in between, threatening to follow the Euro rates upwards.

3. Oct 2007    Summary:  The international interest rates inter­rupt the upwards move after the steep correction downwards of the long uptrend since the second half of 2005 to gain some breath. A correction at this moment and level can turn out to be desastrous to the international economies, if they build up strong bottom patterns for interest rates - weak top patterns for the bond prices - to resume the longterm trends since 2005, up for interest rates, down for the bond markets.
   The international short money market rates show no unified picture besides the end of their honey moon September, stressing the danger that the European Central Bank will pour oil into the flames. The further decline of the Dollar, even below it's all-time-low against the DM at 1.36 DM/$ of the early 90th is all but the smallest risk for the international capital markets. But it may contribute to further turmoil.

The International Interest Rates terminate the steep correction of the long uptrend since the second half of 2005. However, the new uptrend is not yet strong enough, to extend up to the highs of this summer, correction are needed for getting technical power for such a long rise.

    The fluctuations of the international money market short rates continue, this time not only for the Dollar and the Pound Sterling, but also for the Yen and even - a little bit - for the Euro.

26. Sep 2007    Summary:  The international flight into quality is stopped, the new uptrend of interest rates now is substantial. However, to conclude that the long uptrend since 2005 is resumed, we need another correction downwards, which seems to be under way for swiss yields and british gilt yields.

   The ECB's unpredictable policy still delay a substantial fall in Euro-denominated short rates, but the anglosaxon ones are tailspinning, taking pressure from the beleagered money markets.

The International Interest Rates still are under the influence of the subprime woes - from a technical point of view they have gone too far downwards to be interpreted only as a correction of the long uptrend since end of 2005. But there is one constant in the international capital markets - declining yield spreads make the Dollar attack its low of the early 90th against the german Mark.
   Fluctuations of the international money market short rates not yet are terminated, this time downwards. Especially there is some potential downwards for Sterling, even if the Bank of England refuses to help dampen the subprime woes.

19. Sep 2007    Summary:  The international flight into quality is stopped. After the drastic step downwards of the Fed we have to wait and see whether the steep uptrend of the international bond prices precluded only this attempt to rescue the money market from a threatening crunch.

   The international money markets uncouple, the Dollar ones now having given up 50 % of the steep rise since the summer. The other three money markets now at least stabilise, even that of the Euro.

The International Interest Rates stop to uncouple under the in­fluence of the subprime woes - and those political and economical ones of Japan. The flight into quality continues drastically for the anglosaxon dollars, driving bond prices steeply up. Those of the european currencies now follow suit, but only hesingtatingly. This drives the yield spreads, especially those of the Dollar against the Euro steeply down, with drastic consequences for the Dollar's exchange rates.
   The rise of the international money market short rates is resumed, those of the US-Dollar still in a correction, those of the Yen just resuming the uptrend out of a correction.

12. Sep 2007    Summary:  The flight into quality continues, keeping all bond market trends intact, the european bond markets now following the US bond market and that ones of the other anglosaxon dollars downwards. This leaves the US-Dollar against all currencies no chance to stabilise, launching an attack onto the 1.40 $/EUR level.

   The international money markets rates rise again, those of the Dollar still in a correction, which drives short yield spreads Dollar minus Euro down and thus the Dollar against the Euro as well.

The International Interest Rates continue to uncouple under the influence of the subprime woes. The flight into quality continues drastically for the anglosaxon dollars, driving bonds up. But there is no such flight for the european currencies, which build up fresh resistance against a further surge in bond prices. Its not yet clear which regime will be stronger, US-bonds attacking strong resistance levels.

   The rise of the international money market short rates continue, at least for the anglosaxon ones. Those of the Yen continue to continue the steep surge of August, those of Euro stop to rise, a major correction being overdue.

5. Sep 2007    Summary:  The flight into quality continues in the anglosaxon dollars, driving their averages yields drastically downwards, good news for these credit markets. But for the european currencies, including the british pound, there is no such good news, the average yield stop their plunge, limiting the gains for bonds.

   The international money markets rates decouple, those of Sterling and the Dollars exploding, but those of the Euro - hopefully - starting a correction, after too steep a rise against anemic growth and declining inflation in the second quarter.

The International Interest Rates uncouple under the influence of the subprime woes. Australia's and New Zealand's markets stop the correction of the long rise of interest rates since 2005, on the other hand the american one resumes this correction on Tuesday by breaking a resistance level built up last week. The european ones hesitate to attack the corresponding levels.


   Fluctuations in overnight money and inter bank rates do not extend to the Euro yet, short Euro rates continue to rise.

29. Aug 2007    Summary:  The correction of the long uptrend of international yields is continued, but the flight to save havens may be resumed any moment, like on Tuesday in the US-Dollar. The charttechnical targets of the correction are close by. If they do not barr the decline, good news for the credit markets may be ahead.

   The international money markets start corrections of the steep surge for the major currencies, very steep ones for the scandinavian markets. But there is no end of the long rise of Euro rates.

The International Interest Rates continue to correct their long uptrends since mid 2005 downwards, after a short correction of the correction. This allows to calculate the technical targets downwards - they are not far below.


   Fluctuations in overnight money doesn't extend to three months and longer maturities of the international money markets. These start to correct the surge of the last four weeks, but even for the Euro?

22. Aug 2007    Summary:  The correction of the long uptrends of yields is resumed, the end of this correction now being close for all currencies. The markets of long maturities and top grades still are driven by fear of a general meltdown of the credit markets - this being over exaggerated.
   The international money markets start corrections of the steep surge, fueled by easy money of the central banks. But so far these corrections are not sustainable, further action needed to exclude second surges after the end of this correction.

The International Interest Rates continue to correct their long uptrends since mid 2005, since Monday even with a strong feeling for bond prices, which attack the not so massive resistance from the last two weeks.

   The short rates of the money markets continue to rise steeply for the major currencies, fueled by the reluctance of the central banks to lower leading interest rates. Obviously it suffices to add to the money supply of the financial system, in order to par subprime woes.

15. Aug 2007    Summary:  The correction of the long uptrends of yields is resumed. There is a run into save - i.e. supprime - assets, not only for mortgages, even for long maturities.
   The international money markets continue their steep uptrends, now even for Dollar and Yen. The lower german GDP-deflator for the second quarter - the threatening one for the first quarter being revised down to one half - so far has no impact on the Euro's money market - and the ECB, which now would have space for interrupting the tightening grip on the credit markets.

The International Interest Rates continue to correct the long uptrends since mid 2005, a few even falling out of ,double top' chart patterns. But those which have gone far down, like the US-one, start to correct the correction, this, however, being too shorttermed to anticipate an end of the correction of the long rise since mid 2005 yet.


   The short rates of the money markets continue to rise steeply for Euro, Sterling and Yen, for the latter now even steeply. But the Dollar rates of the US money market still stagnate, with strong resistance (resp. support) against a breakout in either direction.

8. Aug 2007    Summary:  The correction of the long uptrends of yields now extends only for those, which haven't yet declined as deep as the american one. But still there are intact shortterm downtrends only for long US Dollar maturities, where the lower GDP-deflator for QI has given the FED some space to soften the sub prime woes by loosing its grip to the capital market a little.

   Most international money markets still suffer from rising rates, even the Dollar market is in danger to rise - not to fall. Even if there now is a little space for, this shows, that the markets don't count with the FED loosening it's grip yet.

The International Interest Rates continue to correct the long uptrends since mid 2005, the steepest gains of bond prices in the american bond market. Our time horizon of this correction is early October.
   The short rates of the money markets continue to rise steeply for Euro, Sterling and Yen, but the Dollar ones fall back, annihilating any attempt to follow suit upwards. For them there now is strong support above and strong resistance below. For the Dollar (against all currencies) this is bad news, putting further pressure onto yield spreads.

1. Aug 2007    Summary:  The correction of the long uptrends of yields is fueled by the lower american GDP-deflator: 0.66 % in the second quarter after the whopping 1.04 % (revised up) of the first is good news for the credit markets, even if still a little too high.

   The lower deflator, in tandem with high growth, terminates any attempt to send the short rates of the Dollar money market higher. But for the other international money markets of short rates there is no hope for any end of the uptrend soon.

The International Interest Rates finally interrupt the steep uptrends, this week's two strong days rising bond prices considerably. Even swiss yield start to retreat, New Zealand Dollar yields now standing alone for continuing the uptrend.

   The short rates of the money markets continue to rise steeply for Euro, Sterling and Yen - and for the chinese Yuan. Even those of the US-Dollar now attack the top of end of June, with the support there being not stable enough to stop the flat shortterm uptrend since end of March.

25. Jul 2007    Summary:  This week's two strong days for the bondprices prevent the international bond markets from another plunge in the very last moment. The overdue correction, the time horizon of which extends up to September, even is started with a small top pattern for the corresponding yield charts.

   For the short rates of the international money markets there is no good news - intact uptrends for the major currencies, even the Dollar rates putting pressure onto the support levels close by.

The International Interest Rates continue their shortterm correction with the exception of two markets: The swiss one did'nt participate at all, continuing it's steep rise, the New Zealand one now following suit. Even if Dollar yields extend the correction downwards - the situation remains critical, another breakout upwards is looming day by day.
   The short rates of the money markets now are in danger to destroy the last support - since Monday the Dollar ones attempt another breakout.

18. Jul 2007    Summary:  The hope for at least a correction of the longterm uptrend still is in danger to be ridiculed already after a weak, an extension to a severe one, with a time horizon of three months, may fail.

   The rise of short rates is continued now for the Dollar ones as well, stabilising the Dollar for some days.

The International Interest Rates continue to correct the long up­trend, but this correction turns out to be only a minor one - with swiss yields still rising steeply. So the hope for a stop of the gruesome losses for bond owners may be premature.
   Short rates continue to climb for Euro and Yen and the yield spreads continue to work against the US-Dollar.

11. Jul 2007    Summary:  The hope for at least a correction of the longterm uptrend is in danger to be ridiculed already after a few days. But the way up isn't yet free either.

   The rise of short rates - except the Dollar ones, which makes the Dollar collapse - is another sign against a substantial correction.

The International Interest Rates start corrections of the long uptrend, with the exception of the swiss interest rates. And with the exception of short rates, which continue to climb. Except the Dollar ones, which fall back onto the breakout level. This stability, however, is no sign of an end of the calamities here either.

4. Jul 2007    Summary:  The correction of the steep rate in­crease continues worldwide, a single exception proving that the heavy losses for bond prices are not over yet. However, this correction is no sign for a turn around to the better yet, even if the time horizon of this correction may amount up to three months.

The International Interest Rates show the first sign of - at least - a correction of the exaggerated explosion, with the exception of british and swedish yields. Short rates rise as well, but with the exception of those of the US-Dollar, which over the weekend fell back onto the breakout level, the broken support level built up since January. However, this pull back may turn out to be dangerous as well.

27. Jun 2007    Summary:  Even if a short correction stops the steep rise of the international yields - this is no sign of an end. Note that the steep rise basicly is due to the dangerous rise of the GDP-deflators in the US and in Germany. We hope that both are one-time effects only, watch for the US-deflator to be published for the second quarter end of July.

The International Interest Rates continue to rise - the surge of energy prices over the weekend may contribute to this tailspinning of the international bond prices. Even the canadian yields and worldwide the international short rates now rise.

20. Jun 2007    Summary:  This rise of interest rates worldwide is exaggerated, corrections are overdue. But we don't see any chance for a turnaround to higher bond prices - not this year.
 

The International Interest Rates continue to rise - now all of them. Corrections are overdue, even severe ones, but there is no chance for a turn around.
  Dollar short rates still find some support, but Yen denominated ones have destroyed any support of late and start to rise steeply.

13. Jun 2007    Summary:  Meanwhile interest rates in all curren­cies are rising, even the Dollar ones. Losses in bonds are heavy.


 

The International Interest Rates continue their steep rise, with heavy losses for bond portfolios. In the lead now New Zealand bonds, but also Euro-denominated ones and the rest of the pack.
  Dollar and Yen short rates start to rise, the Dollar ones thus terminating a sideways move of six weeks.

6. Jun 2007    Summary:  There are only bad news for the inter­national credit markets. Fundamental news scattering like usual, technically yields continue to rise steeply, now even for the short rates of the Dollar money market.
 

The International Interest Rates continue their steep rise, the Euro-denominated ones still in the lead. But swiss and the anglosaxon ones now follow suit, the canadian ones still fighting against strong support. There is some reluctance in Dollar interest rates, but their chart pattern get worse day by day, the 5 %-barrier still still giving some support.
  Euro and Sterling short rates resume their uptrends, but those of Dollar and Yen remain stable.

30. May 2007    Summary:  There is no chance for an end of the heavy losses for the international bond markets. Some of the capital removed from there seems to flood the stock markets.



 

The International Interest Rates continue their steep rise, swiss ones breaking out with no more support, canadian one breaking out from a dangerous bottom pattern, but still with support from last year, australian ones preparing for that. Euro-denominated ones are in the middle of a steep rise, the US ones continue to build up a dangerous bottom pattern, but still with considerably support against too soon a breakout. There is a little hope for norwegian ones to come back, this not being enough for ending the worldwide stampede.
  Short rates interrupt their rise, even those of the Euro.

23. May 2007  Summary:   Quarterly GDP-deflators surging on both sides of the Atlantic, the short-, mid- and longterm outlook on interest rates even worsens - if that is possible. This means that more severe losses on bonds are ahead. There is no chance for the central banks to loosen their grip, which in the third quarter of this year can lead to hurricans over the stock markets.


 

The International Interest Rates broke out again on Tuesday to new longterm highs. Especially dangerous are the chart patterns of the Euro average yields, but also those of the swiss Franc and the anglosaxon dollars. Even the american ones start to build up a dangerous bottom pattern, promising further worldwide losses for bonds, especially for long maturities - like those in the New Zealand Dollar.


  Short rates continue to surge for the Euro and Sterling, those of the Dollar and Yen still being the last resorts of stability - in a see of misery.

16. May 2007  Summary:   The quarterly GDP-deflators of 0.98 % in the US and 1.89 % in Germany for the first quarter don't leave the central banks any other possibility than to fight. The main victims will be the still surging stock markets - beware of Friday Oct/19, twenty years after the big crash. Surging commodity prices contribute to the worst case scenario, as well as the impact of a declining Dollar, a surging Euro and an undervalued Yuan. End of February we have learned, what a fallen pile of rice at the - overvalued - chinese stock market can do to the international stocks.

The International Interest Rates continue to consolidate the steep rise since end of 2006. The chart pattern of the US average yield turns completely neutral, but that of Switzerland points upwards, norwegian yields continue to rise steeply. Canadian yields are building up a dangerous bottom pattern.

9. May 2007  Summary:   US yields don't yet react to this millen­ium's record GDP-deflator, but the uptrends of the international yields remain intact. Short rates turn upwards now as well, even the Yen rates attack their highs of this year. Dollar rates have stopped any attempt to fall, building up strong resistance below.

The International Interest Rates consolidate their rise by a correc­tion, without showing any technical sign, that this could lead to more substantial gains in bond prices.
  For the short rates of the money markets the picture remains unchanged, US-rates still not rising substantially. But Yen rates attack their high of the first quarter, Sterling rates already having broken the support there. Euro rates continue to rise in a stable uptrend channel.

2. May 2007  Summary:   This millenium's record deflator of the US-GDP in the first quarter loosens the last brake for the interna­tional yields on the way up. Because of the low GDP-inflation in the second half we haven't seen any danger for the US bond market so far. This has changed now, the record inflation of QI robs the FED any chance to loosen it's grip. And we are going to see dangerous top patterns for US-Bonds as well.

The International Interest Rates interrupt their rise by a correction, which not yet includes the norwegian and swedish ones. This correction is especially drastic for the australian Dollar, but even there the midterm uptrend remains intact. The big exception is the US Dollar. The latest rise didn't break the mid- and longterm downtrends, which by the latest correction downwards are revived. This dichotomy between the US and the rest of the world is the only hope for decelerating the weakness of the bond markets this year.
  For the short rates of the money markets the picture remains unchanged, US-rates defying to rise substantially, Yen rates also still stagnating. But those of the Euro continue to rise steeply and UK gilt rates break out to higher levels just now.

25. Apr 2007  Summary:   Even if we anticipate a longterm uptrend of the international yields (not backed by rising inflation yet), this shortterm uptrend has gone too far. Corrections are overdue, but the corresponding gains for bond prices may turn out be be short lived.



   Short rates very slowly turn around to an universal uptrend, fueled by the European Central Bank's hard stance against inflation and clearly by this year's strong outlook for growth.
 

The International Interest Rates continue their rise, having now broken major support levels for bond prices. Only US- and Australian Dollar - in Europe Swiss Franc - interest rates continue to encounter strong support on the way up, but the chart patterns for their bond prices are weak as well.
  For the short rates of the money markets the picture remains mixed, US-rates defying to decline further, british gilt rates breakout. Those of the Euro continue to rise steeply, those of the Yen stagnate.

18. Apr 2007  Summary:   The European Central Bank's fight against - a nonexistent - inflation drives western interest rates up and their bond markets to heavy losses.
   Some of the capital there may relocate to the stock markets, but we don't think this effect to be too strong.


 

The International Interest Rates continue their rise, breaking major support levels for bond prices. Only anglosaxon bond prices still encounter strong support on the way down, but the chart patterns are weak as well.
  For the short rates of the money markets the picture remains unchan­ged, US-rates defying to breakdown, british gilt rates to breakout upwards. Those of the Euro continue to rise steeply, but those of the Yen come back.

11. Apr 2007  Summary:   The decouraging picture of the international bond markets even worsened over the Eastern break, with only a few anglosaxon markets still hesitating to follow the breakdowns of the other ones, most of which now have broken major support levels.


 

The International Interest Rates breakout to weak chart pattern, destroying major support level. Only the Dollar ones still hesitate, stabilised by low inflation pictures.
  For the short rates of the money markets the picture also is bleak, british gilt rates now following the Euro's short rates up. But here there still is a decoupling, Yen rates coming back and Dollar rates even trying to breakthrough downwards. But this is a lonely fight against the rest of the world.

4. Apr 2007  Summary:   The international interest markets breakdown to weakness, losses for bond holders will further extend. Some markets still try to defend support, but the chart patterns of the bond markets are weak.



 

The International Interest Rates decouple, those of the Dollar hesitate to rise substantially, the other ones even developping dangerous bottom patterns, with those of New Zealand and Switzerland even having broken out to new highs. Those of the Eurobloc follow suit and in a sudden move upwards the australian ones attack the remaining support.
  For the short rates of the money markets, the situation still is delicate. The japanese ones turn around and retreat, those of the Dollar attack a now strong resistance level. But short gilt rates rise again, attacking the support from early 2007 and thus follow the still steep uptrend of the Euro's short rates.

28. Mar 2007  Summary:   Still short and long maturities tell a different story and there is a strong decoupling of the Dollar yields from those of the rest of the world, now even those of the anglosaxon currencies. Thus the ECB's lonely fight against the worldwide growth and job overheating rules the international bond markets.



 

The International Interest Rates try to decouple, those of the Eurobloc no longer rising, those of the anglosaxon currencies interrupting their advance. Except for those of Switzerland and New Zealand, the dangerous chart patterns of which still threatening to lead to much higher yields.
  For the short rates of the money markets, the situation has worsened considerably. The chance for lower ones is gone - even if those of the Euro march only sideways in the short run. The chart patterns indicate new upwards trends, which, however, still are barred by strong resistance for Dollar and Pound Sterling.

21. Mar 2007  Summary:   Fading inflation fears in the northern hemisphere - with the GDP-deflators and the consumer price indices falling below 2 %, even marching towards 1.5 % - stop the downward pressure of the international bond prices.



  But the still rising short rates of the international money markets still are pushed up - by the European Central Banks anti-inflation and ,strong Euro'-policies.

The International Interest Rates stop their downtrends, started in early February, and resume their uptrends again. But the rise varies considerably, nearly nothing to be seen yet in the long maturities of the Eurobloc. Again the closest to a breakthrough to weakness are the norwegian ones, the most dangerous yield bottom pattern taking place for swiss yields.
  For the short rates of the money markets, the situation has changed. Those of the Dollar couldn't break the resistance below, the british ones are hesitating, but the Euro and Yen denominated ones continue to climb steeply.

14. Mar 2007  Summary:   Inspite fading inflation fears on both sides of the Atlantic - the GDP-deflator in QIV of the Eurobloc has been only 0.38 % and its yearly rate 1.52 % - the international yields stop their declines and whence the support of the stock markets, in order to resume the uptrends. But because of the decline since end of January, the uptrends now have become considerably flatter. We see no risk of inflation in Europe yet, but inflation in the Eurobloc is unequally distributed. In its center - Germany - there even is a risk of deflation, inflation far out - Spain, Ireland - still being too high.

The International Interest Rates continue their steep falls, but still gains for bond prices are the heftiest ones in the anglosaxon bond markets. However, the european bonds, except for norwegian ones, start to rise steeply as well. The short rates of the money markets continue their foul play in the Euro, those of the Yen having an excuse - they are still far below one percent.

7. Mar 2007  Summary:   Fading inflation fears on both sides of the Atlantic allow more strength in the western bond markets, obviously ment to support their stock markets. Even short US-rates start to decline, hopefully destroying the resistance level at 6.29 %. The FED's next step could be downwards easily, the European Central Bank's next step upwards being oblivious.

The International Interest Rates fall steeply, but there is a decoupling between the anglosaxon ones and the european ones. The Dollar yields have terminated the fear of a dangerous bottom pattern by even falling below the low of September/October. For the other anglosaxon yields this is not yet the case, for the european yields this remains only a distant possibility. The most dangerous yield markets still are Finland and especially Norway.

28. Feb 2007  Summary:   The new downtrend reflects the tame inflation picture in the western economies, where the GDP-deflators have fallen back into the comfort zone between one and two percent. But the short rates of the money markets still rise in the Euroblock. They start to rise substantially in Japan - targeting meanwhile one percent.
 

The International Interest Rates run into troubles, restarting their rise and even to complete the breakout from the dangerous bottom patterns. Especially Australia signals resistance to a new uptrend. But the US interest market remains endangered - but only if there would be a sudden u-turn now on this level.

21. Feb 2007  Summary:   Even if one believes in a longterm uptrend for the international yields, the rise since the bottom in 2005 has been to steeply and against the fundamentals. Inflation, measured by the GDP-deflators, doesn't signal any danger on both sides of the Atlantic and in Japan.

The International Interest Rates resume their uptrends - at least for long maturities. Except for a single laggard, the australian one, which still corrects downwards. But this can be terminated in a single day. Today? For the short maturities of the money market the situation doesn't change: Sideways in the US and now even in Japan, upwards in Europe and downwards in UK, where this is a correction to the steep rise of January.

14. Feb 2007  Summary:   Despite slowing inflation in the second half of 2006 in the US and probably also in Europe - watch the upcoming GDP-deflators - international average interest rates continue to climb. The main reason is the european central bank's stubborn fight against inflation, which doesn't exist any longer.

Cervantes !!!

The International Interest Rates interrupt their steep rise, at least the major ones of the USA and the european ones. But those of the smaller anglosaxon dollars didn't yet get the news. Short rates fall back for the Yen, continue to move sideways for the Dollar, but still rise for the Euro and Sterling.

7. Feb 2007  Summary:   After heaving broken out to new two year-highs, most (but not all) of the international interest market hesitate to continue as steeply as since last summer - decelerated by good news from the US GDP-deflators, which for the second half of 2006 fell back into the FED's comfort zone below 0.5 %.

The International Interest Rates continue to climb, some of them even steeply. The Euro denominated ones now are following suit the scandinavian weakness, those of France, Nederland, Germany, Austria and even Spain have broken through to new highs. The italian one still is lagging. Short rates continue move up in the Euro and british pound, but decline in Japan and are neutral in the USA.

31. Jan 2007  Summary:   As more and more interest markets break through as well, the international bond markets are becoming oversold - correction ahead should decelerate the weak picture worldwide om 2007. However, so far nothing like that is to be seen technically.
 

The International Interest Rates continue their tightening, fueled by the dangerous chart pattern of the Dollar rates. Those of Germany and Denmark are fighting for a major breakthrough, which meanwhile the other scandinavian markets have suffered. Short rates continue their climb only in UK, those of the Euro start to stagnate like the US ones. Japanese short rates even fell back dramatically.

24. Jan 2007  Summary:   There is no doubt in the rise of international interest rates as more and more interest markets break down, destroying the major support levels of 2006.

The International Interest Rates continue their rise since end of November 2006. Meanwhile australian and finnish yields have broken strong support levels, following the norwegian ones. The other european yields commence to attack these support levels, starting out off dangerous chart patterns. The US interest market is lagging, but its chart pattern is the most dangerous one. As for short rates - the US ones still hesitate to move up, the others still are rising steeply, fueled by the - surprising - tightening of the Bank of England. We still have doubts of a substantial move upwards in Japan, short rates and long yields, due to doubts in Japan's GDP rates.

17. Jan 2007  Summary:   Nothing new for the international average yields, the trend is up. Some have broken through mass­ive support levels or zones, some are attacking out of classical dangerous chart patterns, actually no market points to the direc­tion of lower yields. Since December there are heavy losses for unprotected bond portfolios. Our scenerio of a longterm turn around upwards in 2006 remains valid, softening energy prices leading to corrections only like that one in last year's second half. We think that there are more bad developments ahead in the first quarter, starting to woe the international stock markets in QII.

The International Interest Rates continue their rise in 2007 after a short correction. The norwegian ones already have broken out to new year-highs, the australian ones follow suit, but have to fight for the support level. Those of New Zealand and Finland are attacking this level as well. The other ones in the Euroblock try to develop dangerous bottom patterns or already have broken out from those, approaching the highs of last summer. However, the two north american ones are laggards, but here too there still is the possibility of dangerous bottom patterns.

10. Jan 2007  Summary:   The international average yields continue their rise, but the major one still move below their highs of last summer. We don't the possibility for a major turn around to lower yields for the year 2007, downturns should remain short, with the risk on the upper side. But any rise 2007 shouldn't exceed that one of summer 2005 to summer 2006.