Wall Street stabilises, after the charttechnical breakdown of last week. For three of the indices two successive strong candles build up support, for the Russel of small caps there is a neutral and a strong candle. For all four indices even the falling resistance line over the downtrend after Christmas is broken, terminating the shortterm downtrends.
The four Eurostoxxindices do not follow suit, a strong and a neutral candle, with a weak one in between, offering only little more support against the drastic breakdown out of early January. The shortterm downtrends still are intact.
25. Jan 2008 Weekly summary Wall Street stop to execute the dangerous top patterns, built up after Oct/19 and the irrational fear of a crash in January. We doubt that January is the right time of the year for a crash.
Only for the Dow the longterm uptrend since 2002 still is intact.
The Eurostoxxindices lag Wall Street in building up new strength, the weakness of the chart pattern now obvious in the short-, mid- and longterm charts. The longterm uptrends since 2002 are terminated by charttechnical top patterns.
Wall Street declines without any charttechnical indication of a turn around.
The four Eurostoxxindices open the new year with two weak days and now even with two weak weeks. This is a bad omen for the whole first quarter.
18. Jan 2008 Weekly summary Wall Street continues to execute dangerous top patterns, built up in the last three months. For a majority of indices the rising support lines below the uptrends since 2002 are broken.
The Eurostoxxindices follow suit, the weakness of the chart patterns now obvious in all charts - short- and longterm.
Wall Street is tailspinning over the yearend with a series of eight weak days. But two strong days try to stop the decline with six strong and two neutral candles since Wednesday. However, we need to have a very strong Friday - a kind of charttechnical miracle today - in order to overcome the negative bookmark from the first two trading days and the first two trading weeks of the year 2008 - which could lead to weakness for the whole first quarter.
The four Eurostoxxindices open the new year with weakness as well. Stability from three neutral candles and two strong ones earlier this week was overwhelmed by weak ones on Wednesday and Thursday. For one index Thursday even destroyed the support at the lower support level of a weak 'head with shoulders'.
11. Jan 2008 Weekly summary Wall Street continues to execute weak and even dangerous top patterns, three of type 'head with shoulders' and for the midcaps a 'descending triangle'. For this the lower support level, the 'neckline', already is broken, for the other three indices this support is heavily under pressure. Only the Dow still is able to defend the uptrend since 2003, the other three fell below the rising lower resistance lines of this long trend.
The Eurostoxxindices look as dangerous as those of Wall Street, putting pressure onto the decisice support levels of two dangerous 'head with shoulders' for the two indices on the left hand and two 'descending triangles' on the right hand side.
Wall Street starts the year 2008 like it closed the year 2007 - with weakness, establishing at least for the two indices of large caps intact shortterm downtrends. The two indices of small caps are heading for the exit as well, two more weak days over the weekend will do. Even the midterm trends are turnded slowly downwards. The risk of huge top pattern is growing, as is seen best from the monthly charts. But the 'necklines' of these top patterns still hold the pressure. Devil's crossings of the two moving averages in late November resp. early December signal disaster as well.
The four Eurostoxxindices open the new year lower as well. But at least one strong candle on Thursday and the still intact support at the lows of mid December signal more stability than in Wall Street. But a glimpse at the weekly and monthly chart pattern reveals weakness as well, although the chart patterns still are a little less dangeous than those of Wall Street and the pressure onto the 'necklines' of which isn't as high. Like in Wall Street we need strength now, especially over this weekend, to defend the flat uptrends since the after Oct/19-low of late November.
4. Jan 2008 Weekly summary Wall Street continues the downtrends, started after Christmas with two weak daily candles opening the new year with weakness. This is a bad signal for the decisive two first weeks of the year.
As for the fundamentals, lets play with numbers: After 0.15 %, 0.94 % and (slightly revised) 1.20 % real quarterly growth rates for the first three quarters 2007, we need 1.7 % real growth for QIV to keep the annual growth of 4.28 % of the summer, i.e. the economy must compensate tremendously for weak QI. We need 0.71 % to stay above 3 % annual growth and lead the western economies. On the other hand only – 0.30 % depression in QIV would send annual growth below 2 %.
The Eurostoxxindices continue to lag Wall Street, but now on the way down. But like there, the longterm uptrends since 2002 are intact, although only narrowly and under pressure from slowly turning around to weakness midterm trends. Therefore weakness in the first two weeks of the new year would signal weakness for the first quarter, and problems like in the exceptional year 2001.
Wall Street terminates the short rallye over Christmas with with four weak candles on Thursday. This rallye, started in mid December with four strong candles, which, however, were located too high to be of type one-day-reversal, enforces the support against further weakness considerably, but devil's crossings of the two moving averages in early December underline once more, how difficult the start of a new shortterm uptrend really is. To weather the two first trading days of the new year we need strength over the last weekend of 2007.
The four Eurostoxxindices continue to fight against shortterm downtrends with three days of neutral candles over the Christmas break. They build up support and are a hope for strong bottom patterns, but there are no strong candles at the deepest points before Christmas. The devil's crossings of the two moving averages already in November signal intact midterm downtrends.
28. Dec 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: The longterm uptrends since 2002 are still intact. The four indices still fight to resume the midterm uptrends, which were terminated in end of July by the subprime crisis. The shortterm uptrends started a week before Christmas are at risk.
The Eurostoxxindices continue to lag Wall Street. Since the lows of mid November, two indices march only sideways, whereas the two Euro denominated indices on the right hand side develop flat uptrends. But the monthly charts reveal dangerous top patterns, the lower 'necklines' of which in conflict with the rising lower support lines below the longterm uptrends since 2002.
Wall Street tries with two strong candles (for the midcaps a neutral and a strong one) - Wednesday's weak one in between - to stabilise after the disappointing breakdown of last week. This increases the support against further weekness, but for a strong bottom pattern we need more strength up to the yearend, moderate strength will do. But the devil's crossings of the two moving averages for all four indices isn't easily fought off. So these four men of war continue to sail in rough water.
The four Eurostoxxindices continue to decline in intact shortterm downtrends, a strong and a neutral candle on Thursday trying to decelerate the swoon and to build up support. Here too devil's crossings of the two moving averages in early December aren't easily fought off.
21. Dec 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: The probability that November's bottom will terminate the usual stock market woes of October grows only slowly, the deep breakdown over last weekend hopefully marking the second - higher - low of a strong bottom pattern. We expect final stength and a return to the longterm uptrend only from the third week of January on, when the usual considerations of a new year will be overcome.
The Eurostoxxindices continue to lag Wall Street, now even considerably. But the flat uptrends since the lows of November and the longterm ones since 2003 still are intact, even if their rising lower support lines are under pressure.
Wall Street breakout to high strength failed because of massive resistance above - unless Friday turns out to drive the market considerably higher. Thursday's four strong candles seem to indicate this. Even then the resistance above now has become stronger. On the other hand the bottom patterns, built up since the low in end of November, have gained considerably stability.
The four Eurostoxxindices still lag Wall Street, by having not destroyed the falling upper resistance line since the year-highs of July for three of the four indices. So they continue to march inside dangerous three 'descending triangles'. Only one builds up a neutral wedge, having broken this falling line on Tuesday, but failing with Thursday's weak candle.
14. Dec 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: The probability that November's bottom will terminate the usual stock market woes of October grows. But only after the usual uncertainty of the two first trading days and two first weeks of the new year, the situation will clear by - hopefully - leading to a breakout of a strong bottom pattern.
The Eurostoxxindices are not strong enough to break out to strength - the low of November sitting to high in order to build up enough charttechnical strength. The main reason for Europe to lag Wall Street is the subdued growth in the summer: Annualised only real + 2.06 % for the two quarters in the Euro zone, against + 4.30 % for the US - but + 1.88 % for Germany. Japan even was in recession.
Wall Street breaks out to high strength - but still with massive resistance above - with three steep strong candles on Thursday, the Dow's being neutral only. Thus strong bottom patterns finally result in technical strength. Note that the three strong candles at the bottom of November were located too high to be classical ones of type 'one-day-reversal'. This should result in severe corrections on the way up.
The four Eurostoxxindices delay the final breakout of strong bottom patterns to shortterm strength - Thursday's four candles are weak only. But the 'descending triangles' in the monthly chart patterns still aren't fought off, we need further strength before the Christmas break.
7. Dec 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: The Fed's and the administration's willingness to fight the subprime woes - which by no means is solved already - lead to technical strength. Strength of the US-bond market and the time of the year add strength as well, the next watershed being the first two trading days and -weeks of 2008.
The Eurostoxxindices build up the same strong bottom patterns as Wall Street, but the final breakout to strength is delayed - hopefully only by one day. At the moment the long uptrends since 2002 remain intact, their rising lower support lines being close by.
Wall Street stops the steep decline of November with two strong, one neutral and one weak candle on Tuesday. Wednesday's four steep neutral candle destroy the downtrend channel of November, but neutral and even weak candles on Thursday do not continue upwards. This is no convincing turn around to strength, but at least is building up more support against an immediate continuation of the downtrend. This situation is typical for the fight at the rising lower bound of the longterm uptrend since mid 2002.
The four Eurostoxxindices stop to collapse too, even a few days earlier and with a new shortterm uptrend already. But the chart patterns are weaker than those of Wall Street and the lower bounds of the long uptrends since 2002 already broken. The monthly chart patterns are weak, the indices being contained in 'descending triangles', the lower bounds of which still close by.
30. Nov 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: No crash in 2007, twenty years after that one of 1987. But the failure to break the resistance at the longterm highs of July starts a downtrend, which still is intact and is in conflict with the longterm uptrend since 2002. It remains open whether the midterm downtrend is a correction only or already a turn around to weakness. Note that the american economy was expanding in the two summer quarters with an annual pace of 4.30 %, keeping corporate profits high.
The Eurostoxxindices relatively are weaker than those in Wall Street, reflecting low growth in the Eurobloc economies - only 2.06 % in the summer. Germany, Europes largest economy, again grows sub-par with only 1.88 %.
Wall Street declines steeply, occasional neutral or strong daily candles wiped off immediately after. Even three strong monthly candles for the mid caps after the plunge end of July couldn't prevent the plunge in November. The Dow already has destroyed the support at the low of early August, thus terminating a dangerous 'descending triangle' with a major breakthrough. This is a bad signal for the broad market.
The four Eurostoxxindices collapse, after being unable to recover the losses of the first plunge in August in the week before and after Oct/19. There was no crash then, but a slow inauguration of weakness. Occasional strong days, like the neutral candles of Thursday, are corrections only in now intact downtrends. The european stock markets now desperately need help to rescue the longterm uptrends since 2003.
23. Nov 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: No crash in 2007, twenty years after that one of 1987. But the failure to arrive at the all-time-highs of July after the plunge of August triggers weakness, which drive the stocks downwards. The steep decline in November, especially the major break down out of a correction upwards of last week, targets the lows of August. But there still is the chance that the longterm uptrends since early 2003 remain intact.
The Eurostoxxindices decline steeply and now have fallen onto the lower support levels - called 'neckline' - of dangerous 'descending triangles'. A breakthrough here at the most dangerous location 1/3rd before the closing edge of these triangles could trigger another steep fall, thus finally destroying the rising lower support lines of the longterm uptrends since 2003.
Wall Street didn't crash in October, but all four indices broke through major support levels on past Friday - the second Friday of November thus turning out to be really a 'black' Friday. Attempts to stabilise after built up three 'diamond'-patterns in the outgoing week, the weakness of the Russel's index of the small caps demonstrating the insuffient support of which. So even if Friday doesn't destroy the support at this week's lows already and the weekly candles still remain neutral, the weakness now is obvious from the new shortterm downtrends.
The four Eurostoxxindices show the same breakthroughs, destroying on past Friday massive support levels, this time without any delay to relativetively to Wall Street. The stability of the first three days of the outgoing week is destroyed on Thursday with four very weak candles, fiercely attacking the support built up in the three days before.
16. Nov 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: No crash in 2007, twenty years after that one of 1987. But in November Wall Street starts new shortterm downtrends. However, the mid- and longterm uptrends remain intact, even if the rising lower support lines of which will become under attack in the running week. But there still is the chance that the longterm uptrends since early 2003 remain intact and trampoline Wall Street up again.
The Eurostoxxindices continue the new shortterm downtrends, even drastically on Thursday. But the longterm uptrends since mid 2002 remain intact, even if four weak 'double top' patterns aim downwards onto the rising support lines of the longterm uptrends since 2003 with the technical targets even below.
Wall Street didn't crash in October, but starts new shortterm downtrends in November with the four weak candles of Wednesday. They destroyed major support levels for the two large cap indices on the left hand side. For the small cap indices on the right hand side the remaining support levels are fragile. But a glimpse at the monthly charts reveals 'diamond' patterns for all four indices, which not necessarily are weak, but promise large fluctuations ahead.
The four Eurostoxxindices show the same breakthroughs, destroying massive support levels with a delay of one day relatively to Wall Street. Only one of the four indices hit a new two months-high in end of October. A glimpse onto the monthly charts here reveals still intact longterm uptrends, the rising lower support lines of which not yet being arrived at. But in order to avoid their destruction the markets have to return to strength until mid November.
9. Nov 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: No crash in 2007, twenty years after that one of 1987. But after the plunge of end of July and early August, Wall Street inaugurates a second one now - for three of the four indices only after hitting new absolute highs in mid October. This makes a major trend change downwards of the long uptrend since 2002 unlikely, at least not before a new rallye leads to a new top. There even is the possibility of another steep uptrend for all four indices in December and the first half of 2008.
The Eurostoxxindices start new shortterm downtrends on Thursday. But the longterm uptrends since mid 2002 still are intact, even if there now is the possibility of weak 'double top' patterns, the first tops of which being the year-highs of end of July.
Wall Street didn't crash in October, even if Thursday's plunging weak candles destroy the completion for most bottom patterns, from some of which a breakout to high strength already took place. Thus Wall Street's chart patterns even contradict a substantial downtrend in the rest of the year, no top chart pattern to be seen anywhere.
The four Eurostoxxindices decline substantially on Thursday, the four weak candles denying a breakout from strong bottom patterns. The resistance at the highs of early October turns out to be too massive to be broken in the first attack. But a glimpse at the weekly and monthly charts reveals still intact uptrends since the major corrections of July and August.
2. Nov 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street: No crash in 2007, twenty years after that one of 1987. The remaining risk even is no turn around to weakness - no technical sign for something like this to be seen yet - but at most consolidations of the long uptrends since mid 2002, the third ones in the year 2007. But even this would enforce the uptrends considerably.
The Eurostoxxindices yet show no signs of turn arounds to weakness either. The long uptrends since mid 2002 turn out to be too strong. The only remaining risks are corrections, but we doubt that there are substantial ones like those of this summer in the doldrums.
Wall Street finally stopped the uptrend since mid August on Friday Oct/19 2007, after a four-days slump in the days before. But two strong candles after prevented a black Monday. Obviously a bet against a crash, selling on Friday, buying on Monday was a winning strategy. But two weak candles after stress the role of the high of mid September as a left shoulder of a huge top pattern, the right one being Thursday, if - today, Friday, plunges again. So we need strength over the weekend to fight off this threat, but a continuation of the new shortterm downtrend can be fought off only by stability until mid November.
The four Eurostoxxindices started to decline substantially in mid October, but Friday Oct/19 turned out to be no crash, neither Monday after - weak candles but no crash. In the three days after the market stabilised, this stability with Thursday's steep neutral candle even destroying the falling upper resistance line of a new downtrend channel. But this is not yet enough to prevent the high of mid September as a left shoulder of a huge top pattern if - there is another slump over the weekend.
26. Oct 2007 Weekly summary: No crash in Wall Street in 2007. The analogies with the crash of Oct/19 1987 were not enough to throw Wall Street further down than the plunge of Friday Oct/19. Stability in the outgoing week prevented more than that one-day plunge. But the threat of a new shortterm downtrend still isn't fought down. Remember, that the two weeks after Oct/19 1987 were aweful, until the threat of another crash was - narrowly - fought off. Remember the next stock market low in 1987. We are glad that US-yields are heavily declining.
The Eurostoxxindices show no sign of a crash in October either. But the risk of a huge top pattern of type ,head with shoulders' still is not fought off - like in Wall Street. A top pattern of this largeness could send the market tailspinning in November. There are new buying opportunities - as usually in November and December - only if these risks are fought off.
Wall Street stopped the uptrend since mid August by starting a shortterm downtrend since the breakout in early and the highs in mid October. Even the rising support line since mid September is destroyed. So the breakout to new highs for large and small caps - but not for mid caps - failed, and the slump since mid October turns to be worse than a mere uptrend enforcing pull back onto the broken resistance level at the old all-time-highs. But for a substantial turn around to weakness we now need another rise to build up a weak chart pattern of type top. May be this is started by Thursday's strong candle for the mid and small cap indices, but to build up a second shoulder we need another week, shifting the completion of such a top pattern into November. A crash in November is unlikely, usally we buy stocks in the last two months of the year - at least in the overwhelming majority of years.
The four Eurostoxxindices relatively show the same shortterm weakness as Wall Street, although here the rise since the subprime slump of early August didn't cover all the losses before. Thursday's four weak candles contribute to the possibility of a severe set back on Friday. A crash today on Oct/19 in Europe still is possible. Marching still on treacherous ground - we shift our yearly buying spree to November and don't yet cover option spreads over the weekend.
19. Oct 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street denies the possibility of a crash on Oct/19 - because of a lack of charttechnical preparation since mid September and especially in the first half of October. Up to then the first half of the year 2006 was boding well for a crash today, but then valuations of the stock markets in Wall Street, Europe and Japan prevented the continuation of the subprime slump in August and it's revival in October. The rise since the summer is of the form of a needle, but we doubt a crash next week after Monday and then in the rest of October.
The Eurostoxxindices show more technical signs of a crash in October than in Wall Street. Here too the interest rate charts look exactly like those of October 1987 - that crash having been interest rate induced. At least from a chart technical point of view, but with the exception of the height of the average interest rates - today the average interest rates are considerably lower as in 1987.
Wall Street stopped the uptrend since mid August with two weak days since Wednesday. But a glimpse at the weekly and monthly charts reveals, that for three of the four indices strong Tuesday marked another all-time-high, with a major breakout above the old highs of the summer taking place in October. A crash so soon after in unlikely. But the situation remains treacherous.
The four Eurostoxxindices continue the uptrend since mid August with another steep neutral-candle breakout on Thursday. A crash on Oct/19 here needs weakness in the remaining six trading days to make this surge one of type needle.
12. Oct 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street leaves the possibility open to crash on Oct/19, the global interest rate play contributing to this fear. But this amounts to weakness in the remaining six trading days - which only is a distant possibility because of the technical strength of so many stock indices in so many markets - and of so many stocks.
The Eurostoxxindices still rise steeply, but the weekly and monthly charts reveal, that the longterm highs of this summer still are not arrived at. Thus there is a much closer similarity with the charts of October 1987 than in Wall Street.
Wall Street terminated a broad strong bottom pattern with a steep breakout in mid September. The consolidation after turned out to be another - a little smaller - bottom pattern, from which Monday's steep neutral candles broke out again. Since a sideways trend consolidates the uptrend again, no end of the technical strength to be seen yet with mid- and small caps at the helm.
The four Eurostoxxindices terminated as well a strong bottom pattern with Monday's steep breakout. Three days with strong and neutral candles continue this breakout relatively a little stronger than Wall Street.
5. Oct 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street continues to rise in intact uptrends for the major stock indices, the subprime woes of this summer seem to be forgotten.
The Eurostoxxindices now rise in tandem with Wall Street, with the same chart patterns, those of September being a little bit distorted. But the gap to the all-time-highs of the year 2000 still is huge - at least for the two upper indices of 50 large caps.
Wall Street, broke out of strong bottom patterns, but then continued only sideways. But the latest two steep neutral candles build up another strong bottom pattern. More strength would trigger another breakout for three of the four indices, following the Dow Jones of the large caps, which again marches at the helm.
The four Eurostoxxindices build up the same strong bottom patterns as Wall Street, higher and smaller than the previous ones in the first half of September.
28. Sep 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street rises again, fiercely attacking the all-time-highs of this summer, before the subprime woes led to a deep correction.
The Eurostoxxindices now rise in tandem with Wall Street. There even is one of the four indices, already breaking on Thursday the strong resistance level, thus triggering another substantial rise. But the highs of this summer are a little further off than those of Wall Street.
Wall Street, breaks out of strong bottom patterns, with strong candles at the deepest point in August. But the steep neutral, one even strong, candles of Wednesday already are neutralised by the weak ones of Thursday, reflecting strong resistance up to the all-time-highs of this summer. There now is no more difference in the relative strength of Wall Street's major stock indices.
Three of the four Eurostoxxindices break out of a strong bottom pattern, but even a steep neutral candle on Wednesday doesn't succeed for the broadest european stock measure - Thursday's weak candle even enforcing the resistance against at 380. For the other three indices the resistance up to the highs of this summer is strong as well.
21. Sep 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street starts attacks onto the resistance up to the all-time-highs of this summer, after breaking out of strong bottom patterns - fueled by the easing policy of the Fed and the resulting decline of the Dollar, which stabilises the GDP in the second half of 2007.
The Eurostoxxindices relatively are now a little less strong than Wall Street, strong resistance from the all-time-high of the year 2000 delaying the breakout for the broadest of these four indices. For the other three indices the distance to the old all-time-high still is huge, stressing the lagging of european stock markets.
Wall Street, instead of breaking out of a very strong bottom pattern, fell back another times. But three strong days build up another small handle to this bottom pattern, shifting the breakout. Relatively the large caps of the Dow are technical the strongest, the small caps of the Russell and the NASDAQ lagging.
The four Eurostoxxindices delay the breakout from strong bottom patterns as well, by the same type of handles to saucer patterns, with Thursday's four strong candles a promise for strength over the weekend.
14. Sep 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street continues to build up strong bottom patterns, but the breakout is delayed by massive resistance above up to the all-time-highs of the summer. The AMEX-index is leading the pack with a fine breakout.
The Eurostoxxindices develop the same strong chart patterns as Wall Street, even relatively. White candles in the last three days cancelled any charttechnical difference to Wall Street.
Wall Street builds up a very strong bottom pattern by rising moderately - in all major indices. That one of the Dow is lagging a little, being relatively less strong. The Dow is the only index with a weak monthly candle for August, the others with a strong one. The growing strength now is seen also in the weekly charts.
The four Eurostoxxindices build up strong bottom patterns as well with for strong monthly candles in August. But the latest two weak daily candles deny an immediate breakout.
6. Sep 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street built up strong bottom pattern, with a steep uptrend ahead. But there is massive resistance above, up to the all-time-highs of the summer.
The Eurostoxxindices now are relatively less strong than Wall Street, but only a little and in the very short run. The strength of the bottom patterns is best seen from the daily and weekly charts. The longterm uptrends since 2003 are intact.
Wall Street started to stabilise after the plunge with a strong pattern, but three plunging weak candles this week, with only a steep neutral one in between, built up strong resistance against a successful breakout of a strong bottom pattern. The weakness of the weekly chart patterns reveals the treacherous situation.
The four Eurostoxxindices fight to build up strong bottom patterns with the latest two strong candles of this week. But there still is massive resistance above, enforced by past Friday's and Tuesday's weak candles.
31. Aug 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street tries to build up support against further declines, but so far all attempts to stabilise do not convince. However, the monthly chart patterns reveal that the longterm uptrends since 2003 still are narrowly intact.
The Eurostoxxindices now are a little stronger than Wall Street, but a weak monthly candle for the four indices and the weakness of the weekly charts stress the still treacherous situation.
Wall Street started last week with a strong three-days-bottom pattern, continued upwards until Thursday's weak candle of type ,hang man' - for the Russel of small caps even a negatively engulfing ,hammer' - enforces the resistance zone from end of July/early August. This move upwards last week so far only is a correction of the plunge since mid July.
The four Eurostoxxindices reversed the decline last week as well, but the deepest candle were neutral only, i.e. not of the type one-day-reversal. Thursday's four week candles enforce the resistance zone of July / August considerably, a fight inside rising the weakness of the chart patterns considerably.
24. Aug 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street stopped the plunge last week, but the move upwards is a typical correction of the deep plunge before - with the risk, that more weakness in the upcoming week may start a second leg of the plunge, the correction being one half way down.
The Eurostoxxindices mimick Wall Street closely, the rise of the outgoing week rising the risk of a continuation of the plunge before considerably.
Wall Street collapses, after marching too long on treacherous ground. Since August, attempts to stabilise by neutral or even strong candles are immediately after swallowed by crashing weak ones, often finished intraday only near the close of the session. So Thursday's strong candles for the Wilshire Equity and the NASDAQ Composite may turn out as treacherous again.
The four Eurostoxxindices collapse as well, but a glimpse at the weekly charts reveals, that these indices rapidly are tailspinning towards major support levels, which are charttechnical targets downwards as well. There still is room for weakness over the weekend, but in the upcoming week we anticipate stabilisation down there and a two-weeks fight for strength, which finally should be successfull.
17. Aug 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street doesn't stop tailspinning yet - even good news for the stock markets doesn't help. Lower yields for long maturities reflect a flight to save havens only, contradicted by surging shortterm yields, where only overnight is fluctuating. Collapsing commodity prices and - most important - high US-growth rates and a moderate deflator for the second quarter are ignored completely by the stock markets.
The Eurostoxxindices collapse as well - from the technical point of view there is no difference to Wall Street. However, the rising Dollar is good news for the stock markets on the eastern side of the Atlantic. But this is compensated from the fundamental point of view: Growth collapses in Europe's major economies Germany and France to the low levels seen in the years up to 2005.
Wall Street still is marching on treacherous ground. Attempt to stabilise by neutral or even white candles usually are negatively engulfed - swallowed - by weak days caused by lending woes in the US, Thursday being a typical example. But there is something positive on Thursday - support built up earlie this week still stems the panic. So if Friday holds the level, the plunge may be terminated now.
The four Eurostoxxindices failed to breakout to new longterm highs and then collapsed drastically, now trying to stabilise by building up strong bottom pattern. Even after Thursday's plunge, the chance for a bottom pattern still exists, even if the lowest candle at the bottom is a weak one - for all four indices.
10. Aug 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street didn't built up stable bottom patterns yet. But since the FED didn't lower rates this week, we do not anticipate a general lending crises or credit crunch worldwide.
The Eurostoxxindices are continuing to stabilise, but the chart patterns still remain treacherous - now perhaps relatively a little bit more stable than those of Wall Street. But the daily candle at the bottom last week is weak only. The monthly chart patterns reveal still narrowly intact uptrend channels.
Wall Street abruptely terminates the shortterm uptrend with many weak and even plunging candles, up to Wednesday's strong candles which lead to Thursday's strong or neutral ones. There now are strong three-days-patterns, which for all four indices are of the strongest shape - except for the resistance above.
The four Eurostoxxindices failed to breakout to new longterm highs and then collapsed drastically, thus increasing the resistance above. But in the first week of August there is some stabilisation from white candles, not all of them - no strong bottom patterns yet.
3. Aug 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street builds up strong bottom patterns, rising the hope for stabilisation now and perhaps even strength. But these bottom patterns still are fragile, we need more strength over this weekend.
The Eurostoxxindices are starting to stabilise, the chart patterns remaining more treacherous than those of Wall Street. Hopefully we will get support from high growth numbers for Europe's second quarter, to be published end of August.
Wall Street abruptely terminates the shortterm uptrend with three plunging weak candles, a neutral or even a strong one in between not enough for stabilising. For the two indices on the right hand side even those white candles are missing. For three of the four indices any support since May is destroyed, the Dow Jones of large caps an exception, still finding support of late.
The four Eurostoxxindices fail to breakout to new longterm highs and then fell back drastically. The latest three weak candles even destroy any support since April, only one of the four indices remaining above the top of end of February. This is a negative surprise, making the plunge worse than a mere pull back onto a broken resistance level.
27. Jul 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street doesn't yet answer the question, whether we have seen in mid July the longterm or even all-time-highs of the uptrends since early 2003. To distinguish a correction from a charttechnical top pattern, this needs another surge, which, however, isn't started yet.
The Eurostoxxindices failed to break the strong resistance levels at the year-highs and then plunge. This is closer to a charttechnical top pattern than in Wall Street, but here too only another uptrend can answer the question, whether we have already seen in mid July the end of the longterm uptrends since early 2003.
Wall Street continues to rise steeply, the sideways ride of the last five days being a consolidation of the steep breakout of Thursday before.
The four Eurostoxxindices still stagnate close to major breakout levels, with the resistance there enforcing week by week.
20. Jul 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street continues to rise in intact short-, mid- and longterm uptrends for all major stock indices.
The Eurostoxxindices still are not able to break the strong resistance levels. But the mid- and longterm uptrends remain intact.
Wall Street breaks out to new strength with a very strong candle on Wednesday and a steep neutral one on Thursday - for most indices this is a new year- and longterm high, for the others a ferocious attack onto the resistance at the year-high.
The four Eurostoxxindices still stagnate in shortterm sideways trends, trying to build up strong bottom patterns, after the steep uptrends terminated end of May. But already two strong days can complete these patterns successfully.
13. Jul 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street continues the short-, mid- and longterm uptrends by Thursday's strong breakout from strong bottom patterns with more strength ahead.
The Eurostoxxindices still bop up and down and sofar do not follow suit Wall Street's strength. But on the other hand no technical weakness can be seen either.
Wall Street continues to fight against weak shortterm chart patterns, trying to prolong the strength of the Hightechs, which were lagging in the first half of 2007, into the broad market. June's weak monthly candles still remain inside the steep midterm uptrends, the steep neutral candles of the second quarter still signalling intact longterm uptrends.
The four Eurostoxxindices fell back with weak and even negatively engulfing candles on Thursday, thus enforcing resistance built up in June. But even if June's monthly candles are weak only, the quarterly charts reveal intact longterm uptrends.
6. Jul 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street shows a split image - strong Hightechs and Hightech indices, but the other stock indices not yet really strong again, fighting against strong resistance of the last eight weeks. This fight leaves the chance for new absolute highs in July.
The Eurostoxxindices show nearly the same chart patterns as those of Wall Street, lagging the strength of the Hightechs, but with intact longterm uptrends.
Wall Street fights against weak chart patterns, strength since Wednesday not being enough for rescue. However, the lower bounds of these chart patterns still give massive support against the shortterm downtrends since mid June. Weak monthly candles for June now are inevitable.
The four Eurostoxxindices try to fight the shortterm downtrend since mid June, but four higher neutral candles on Thursday are not enough for stabilisation yet. Weak monthly candles for June now are inevitable.
29. Jun 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street has to fight against major top patterns, after hitting new all-time-highs for all major stock indices in early June. The quarterly candle charts reveal, that the highs of the year 2000 still resist a coninuation of the uptrends since early 2003.
The Eurostoxxindices move again in tandem with Wall Street, the shortterm chart patterns being a little less dangerous than the corresponding ones there. But on both sides of the Atlantic we doubt new highs in this summer.
Wall Street fell into a correction in June, with a certain risk for double top patterns, after marking a new all-time-high only for the midcaps last week. To resume the steep uptrends we need a strong continuation of Thursday's strong candles into next week.
The four Eurostoxxindices are relatively a little stronger than Wall Street's indices. If Thursday's four weak candles are overcome by strength on Friday and more strength next week, there even is the chance for strong bottom patterns. A glimpse at the weekly and monthly charts reveals, that the uptrends since 2003 remain intact.
22. Jun 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street moves sideways in June, after starting with new all-time-highs. But Thursday's four strong candles are a sign for another attack onto the resistance at these highs.
The Eurostoxxindices move a little different from Wall Street now. There is no weakness as well, the fight reflects resistance at the all-time-high of the year 2000 for the first of the four indices. The other three are lagging behind, even deeply below those now distant days.
Wall Street resumes the longterm uptrend with two strong days up to Friday, fiercely attacking the resistance at the all-time-highs of early June. But there is only one lonely strong candle among those eight ones - that one of Wednesday for the mid caps. To prevent dangerous top patterns we need strength on Friday.
The four Eurostoxxindices reverse the corrections of early June even more dramatically than Wall Street, with four strong candles on Wednesday and four steep neutral ones on Thursday. But there still is strong resistance above, which for the index top left even is very strong.
15. Jun 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street resumes the steep longterm uptrend, but now with resistance above from early June. We anticipate more absolute highs still in June - at least in early July. That one for the Russel of small caps is necessary to prevent a dangerous top pattern.
The Eurostoxxindices turn around even more dramatically than Wall Street. Like there, the correction of early June leaves the possibility of a top pattern, but two days of more strength can easily terminate any danger to the longterm uptrend.
Wall Street reverses it's shortterm uptrends. The mid- and longterm charts reveal, that this is a fight for a breakout for the S&P 500 to longterm highs, whereas for the Russel of small caps it looks like a pull back onto that breakout level. For the other two indices its a correction of the bull run only, at least from the mid- and longterm view. May be that some of the capital withdrawn from the bond markets and jumping over the species divide into the stock market now is flooding back.
The four Eurostoxxindices terminate their uptrends, reversing the breakout of last week into the breakdown of the outgoing week. But the weekly charts reveal, that for three of the four indices this only is a pull back onto the breakout level of end of Februaty and for the fourth index its only - one of the standard corrections, meaning nothing.
8. Jun 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street stops the bulls stampede. Never in history there has been a bears stampede on the bond markets without reversing the bull run for the stock markets. But a glimpse onto the weekly charts reveals, that it is too early in the year for anticipating an all-time-high in early June yet. So we believe in an another attack onto the year-highs still in June and July - but beware of Friday Oct/19th and the distribution phase before.
The Eurostoxxindices now mimick Wall Street, the sudden plunge of the outgoing week being a little tragic because up to last week, they started another bull run by breaking out to new longterm highs, for one of the four indices already an all-time-high.
Wall Street reveals technical strength in the short-, middle- and longterm chart patterns. Corrections are terminated early, too early to continue the bull run into the third quarter. But for June we remain optimistic.
The four Eurostoxxindices terminate their sideways trends with four strong candles on Wednesday and four steep neutral ones on Thursday. The strength of the uptrends is seen best from the midterm chart patterns.
1. Jun 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street continues the Texas bull run with a all-time-high for the still lagging S&P 500, considerably after the other major indices. ,Sell in May and go away' now can be ridiculed. Note that the bull run has it's origin in the run of corporate earnings.
The Eurostoxxindices breakout to new longterm highs. The first one now starts the fight for an all-time-high, but for two of them the gap to the all-time-high of the year 2000 still is huge.
Wall Street broke out last Friday and Monday by destroying strong resistance levels. This is a sign for more strength ahead, even if the weak candles of Wednesday and Thursday terminate this breakout abruptely and early. From a technical point of view this means no end of the uptrend yet, just an - overdue - correction.
The four Eurostoxxindices broke out last Friday with four steep strong candles, but after continue to rise only in a very flat uptrend, the weak candles of Thursday taking off momentum.
25. May 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street broke out once more earlier the week, but Wednesday's weak candles and Thursday's plunging ones reveal, that a continuation of the steep uptrend of this year still in May is unlikely.
The Eurostoxxindices continue to rise in stable uptrends, which even remain intact if this Friday turns out to be weak only. This is seen best from the weekly and monthly charts.
Wall Street breaks out to new highs, but this time only the Dow Jones of the large caps and the S&P 500. Midcaps stagnate, Wednesday's strong candle being only a sign to end shortterm weakness, the small caps of the Russel indices even signalling weakness. After breaking out two times in May and even with strong candles, they fell back and now even threaten with a weak top pattern, the neckline of which is under pressure from Thursday's weak candle.
The four Eurostoxxindices stagnate, but past Friday's four strong candles signal four strong bottom patterns under construction. They only lack the final breakout above strong resistance at the upper necklines. The strongest chart pattern is that of the narrowest Eurostoxx of 50 Euro denominated stocks.
18. May 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street has developped a mixed chart picture, but the broadest stock measure, the Wilshire Equity signals, that the strength of large caps will overwhelm the weakness of small caps.
The Eurostoxxindices sofar is not fueled by the nice european growth rates for the first quarter 2007. The european chart patterns seem to be more concerned by the surge of GDP-inflation and the resulting depressing weakness of the bond markets. Thence interest rate worries will be the main threat to the stock markets in the third quarter 2007.
Wall Street interrupts it's short-, mid- and longterm uptrend by Thursday's four weak candles, plunging towards the lower bounds of the four steep uptrend channels - after having broken out to longterm highs on Wednesday and in all four indices here and some others elsewhere. Even if the shortterm uptrend channels will be broken over the weekend, the mid- and longterm uptrends remain intact.
The four Eurostoxxindices broke out to longterm highs with four steep strong candles on past Friday, but immediately after fell back even below the breakout level. So this is more than an enforcing pull back onto a breakout level, which robs the Eurostoxxes any chance to close up in the short run with the latest surge in Wall Street.
11. May 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street remains strong, Thursday's weak reaction to the short-, mid- and longterm uptrend is a technical surprise. But a correction is overdue and the resistance at the absolute high of 2000 of the S&P 500 is massive. This resistance easily was broken for the Russel indices of small caps. So the S&P 500 is a - lonely - laggard.
The Eurostoxxindices finally broke out to longterm highs on past Friday, but steeply corrected downwards. However, the first of the four indices now even came close to the all-time-high of the year 2000.
Wall Street continues the steep rallye week by week, fueled by steeply rising earnings and earnings estimates for the next financial years. The strength is best seen from the monthly chart patterns - strong three-months-patterns for all four indices.
The four Eurostoxxindices prepare for a steep breakout by completing strong bottom patterns, decelerated considerably by the strength of their currencies, making them revaluation bourses. But the Euro denominated indices on Thursday broke out to new longterm highs as well.
4. May 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street remains strong, together with mainland China relatively the strongest stock market internationally. Week by week there are new all-time-highs for the Dow of 30 blue chips, and also for the Wilshire Equity, Wall Street's market capitalisation.
But beware of Oct/19 2007, twenty years after Oct/19 1987!
The Eurostoxxindices still lag the strength of Wall Street, but are bound to breakout now as well.
Wall Street continues the steep rise, in all major indices and most sectors. Thursday's strong and even positively engulfing candle commences a steep breakout for the small caps of the Russel indices from a strong bottom pattern.
The four Eurostoxxindices prepare for a steep breakout by marching through strong bottom patterns. Which, however, are not of the strongest types - no strong daily candles at the bottom. So the technical targets after a beakout are not as high as those for the Wall Street indices and the gap to the all-time-highs of early this millenium remains huge.
27. Apr 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street climbs to new all-time-highs week by week. In the lead the Dow of 30 blue chips, but also the Wilshire Equity, which is not an index, but Wall Street's market capitalisation.
The Eurostoxxindices are decelerated somewhat by the strength of Euro, making Wall Street a devaluation bourse and the european ones not so strong revaluation bourses. But both sides of the Atlantic are fueled by exploding earnings and earnings estimates.
Wall Street remains strong, a strong three-days-pattern over last weekend led to a steep breakout. Only Thursday's hesistatingly weak candle interrupts the rallye for 13 000. The other three indices are relatively less strong, but the uptrend is nowhere at risk. Corrections may turn out shortlived, Thursday's candle for the midcaps is strong, that one of the small caps steep neutral.
The four Eurostoxxindices broke out last week as well, but now start to stagnate again with three days of weak candles.
20. Apr 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street continues the rallye after a major breakout, corrections included. The Russel index of small caps has broken out to new all-time-highs as well.
The Eurostoxxindices remains in intact uptrends, which, however, are relatively flatter than those in Wall Street. Obviously they are decelerated by the strength of the Euro.
Wall Street tried to breakout over the Eastern break to attack the year-high before the plunge end of February, but then corrected only sideways. Thursday's steep strong candles resume this attack, but there still is resistance of the outgoing week, barring the easy way up. This resistance already is broken for the Hightech markets - so we are positive for Friday and the upcoming week.
The four Eurostoxxindices stagnate as well, Thursday's four weak candles defying to signal strength.
13. Apr 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street stagnated over the Eastern break, but under the lead of the chinese markets will return to strength soon.
The Eurostoxxindices still correct sideways, but here too the mid- and longterm trends are up.
Wall Street resumed last week the uptrend convincingly with three strong daily candles for the S&P 500, a steep neutral one in between, by breaking any resistance since black Tuesday end of February.
The four Eurostoxxindices didn't continue the breakout of the preceeding week convingingly, even if strong and neutral candles on Thursday attack the resistance at the year-high from end of February.
6. Apr 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street returned to a strong shortterm chart pattern by attacking the resistance at the year-high of February. Note that although the S&P 500 still is marching below the all-time-high of the beginning of the millenium, the broader S&P 1500 and the Wilshire market capitalisation already march in unchartered territory above.
The Eurostoxxindices do not yet follow Wall Street's and the chinese stock market's strength - but this is only a question of days.
Wall Street last week didn't continue the major breakout from a strong bottom strongly. But the pull back onto the breakout levels - and even below - is offset by Thursday's two neutral candles, two still being weak only. This continuation of the correction finally will lead to strength again.
The four Eurostoxxindices didn't continue the breakout of the preceeding week either, shifting strength until the steep neutral candles of Thursday.
30. Mar 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street doesn't reflect the sudden rebirth of the far eastern strength - strength should come back in the upcoming week.
The Eurostoxxindices do not reflect the far eastern strength either and - the surge of the earnings and earning estimates on both sides of the Atlantic, which is at least as steep as those of the last four years, at first sight even the steepest one since the year 1999.
Wall Street finally terminates the risk of a second leg of the plunge by breaking out from a strong bottom pattern with Wednesday's steep neutral candles, well prepared by the Tuesday's strong ones and the strong ones before close to the bottoms of chart patterns, which suddenly have turned out to be of type ,strong bottom'. Thursday's candles are weak, but strong for the Dow, indicating further strength against the not so strong resistance from the candles of black Tuesday.
The four Eurostoxxindices terminate the fight for stability by a successful breakout from chart patterns, which finally turn out to be strong ones of type ,bottom'. Thursday's four steep neutral candles break any resistance from this month.
24. Mar 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street shakes off any weakness from the plunge of black Tuesday, which turned out to be a trend enforcing correction only. The fundamental strength - most corporate earning estimates are revised upwards steeply - and the time of the year don't allow a crash. But if the rallye continues beware - of Oct/19!
The Eurostoxxindices also fell victim to the woes started in China with a tumbling sack of rice, but have broken out from strong bottom patterns, not exactly of the strongest type, to attack the year-highs. The chart patterns are conguent to those of Wall Street.
Wall Street terminates the plunge, but whether this is final, isn't yet completely sure. The support levels have been strengthened in the past five trading days, but the shortterm chart patterns still are weak, except for the midcaps' neutral wedge. The Russel index has broken the weak ,descending triangle', which is a sign of more stability, but not yet a sign of strength.
The four Eurostoxxindices still have to fight for stability, after the stability developped in the days after black Tuesday was levelled off by three black ravens. So Thursday's neutral daily candles are rescue in the very last moment, but the weekly chart pattern still reveal the risk.
16. Mar 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street still is in danger to plunge a second time, even after a two week's fight for support - look at the weekly and monthly charts. The daily chart patterns do not yet signal final stability or a turn around to strength. So every day the market are closing higher strengthens the support levels below.
The Eurostoxxindices build up stability only hesitatingly, in still weak chart patterns. Even more so than in Wall Street every trading day closing higher is needed to fight off the prevailing risk of a second plunge.
Wall Street terminates the plunge, at least for the two large cap indices, since Tuesday two steep neutral candles, a weak one in between, try to build up a bottom pattern. Both are positively engulfing, and this may be adressed as ,bottom' building, since the shape of this pattern is a classical one. For the other two indices of mid- and small caps, the pattern is of type V, which is not a classical turn around pattern. On the other hand Thursday's strong candle for the midcaps builds up support.
The four Eurostoxxindices reverse the downtrends with three non-weak candles each, even two strong ones among them. But the V-type pattern is not a classical bottom pattern. So the danger remains over the weekend - only stability, or perhaps another short correction, can scare the risk of a second plunge off.
9. Mar 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street builds up strong bottom patterns only for the large caps, for the mid- and small caps the danger of a sudden second plunge prevails. However, even there the shape of this pattern doesn't anticipate such a negative scenario. Friday and Monday remain critical. A glimpse at the mid- and longterm charts reveals, that there has been a small correction since black Tuesday, nothing more.
The Eurostoxxindices turn around since Tuesday, a little less convincingly than Wall Street's large caps, but a little more so than Wall Street's mid- and small caps. Here too we need stability over the weekend to fight off the prevailing risk of a second plunge.
Wall Street plunges, but is it really all of sudden? At least for the S&P 500 there was a kind of shortterm top pattern, however, one with a strong candle at the top breaking out to new highs - very untypical, like the worldwide plunge of Tuesday, a ,black Tuesday', triggered by a pot of rice falling in China. This is untypical as well, first time that China triggers something on the stock markets. Note that two strong candles after for the mid- and small caps try to prevent the second leg of the plunge, whereas large caps threaten with another weak candle on Thursday. At least these two dangerous candles enforce the support levels at this week's lows a little.
The four Eurostoxxindices even tried to breakout on last Monday with a steep neutral candle for all four indices, but then suddenly ,three black ravens' capsized these battle ships.
2. Mar 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street brutally interrupts the steep uptrends, with the threat of a black Friday and/or Monday. This, however, would be untypically for this time of the year.
Note, that the strong bond market takes off a little pressure, but these days investors pay little attention to interest rates.
The Eurostoxxindices signal a black Friday or a black Monday as well. There even is less resistance to these chinese woes than in Wall Street - technically and from the bond side. But a glimpse at the quarterly longterm charts shows, that so far nothing really happened. With the outlook, that after Tuesday business as normal will calm the markets down.
Wall Street continues to rise, but steeply only the mid and small caps, the two large cap indices stagnating with two weak candles each pulling back onto the old breakout level of early February.
The four Eurostoxxindices move only sideways, building up new shortterm resistance. On the other hand, the breakout levels of early February are not so easy to break-support levels as well.
23. Feb 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street continues the steep uptrends, fueled by a weaker Dollar, bolstering exports, but also by stable growth combined with moderate inflation.
The Eurostoxxindices start to march sideways only, but the mid- and longterm uptrends remain intact. They are decelerated by the European Central Bank's strong Euro policy.
Wall Street continues to rise steeply, only the Russel index of small caps still has to fight resistance - from the year-highs in February and from the all-time-high of the beginning of the millenium.
The four Eurostoxxindices still have to fight some resistance from February, but the midterm trend is up and as strong as that of Wall Street.
16. Feb 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street breaks out to new highs - even for the S&P 500 now, fueled by excellent growth and low inflation rates on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Eurostoxxindices continue their long and steep uptrends since 2003, the only risk being the strange policy of the European Central Bank.
Wall Street continues to rise, not too steeply to become overbought, but moderately by three steps up, one step down - sometimes two steps. This is a stable uptrend, corrected in itself. For instance for the Dow, which during the outgoing week marched only sideways - preparing for another leap to new highs.
The four Eurostoxxindices broke out in February finally a well, overwhelming strong resistance levels from January, thus continuing the longterm uptrends since 2003.
9. Feb 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street continues the rise to new all-time-highs for many indices, especially for the S&P 1500 and more broadly the Wilshire 5000 Equities, which is more than an index, namely the market capitalisation.
The Eurostoxxindices broke out in February to new longterm highs as well, but the distance to the all-time-highs of the beginning of the millenium still is huge.
Wall Street breaks out to new highs, for the Dow even all-time-highs, and after climbing in January with corrections only, now even steeply. All four indices start February with a steep neutral candle breakout with promises for the second week. So it only remains to be fully invested or to seek for laggards.
Two of the four Eurostoxxindices broke out finally on Thursday as well, the first trading day of February.
2. Feb 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street Rising earnings for Wall Street's stock companies and strong growth fuel a steep rise of the indices. No ,landing' whatsoever - gossip - real growth in 2006 was even higher than in 2005 on a yearly basis.
The Eurostoxxindices follow Wall Street up as well, fueled by higher growth in 2008 - probably - resuming their longterm uptrends. High growth rates on either side of the Atlantic and strong corporate earnings free the momentum for breaking out decisively.
Wall Street broke out to new highs with Wednesday's two strong and two neutral candles, all of them steep, but Thursday's four weak ones disappoint completely. All uptrends since 2003 remain intact, selling in such a strong situation stocks is too short run minded. For the Russel's small caps, the resistance above is considerably enforced, but - for all four indices - support below as well.
Two of the four Eurostoxxindices broke out last week to new longterm-highs again, but the two small ones at the top could't break the strong support built up in January.
26. Jan 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street Even a new all-time-high for the Dow and the S&P Mid Cap, and the highest score for years of the S&P 500 (and by the way the S&P 1500 as well) couldn't prevent the set back after. The small caps of the Russel index meanwhile did touch their all-time-high of the year 2000.
The Eurostoxxindices try to follow Wall Street up, continuing their longterm uptrends. Let's hope that high growth rates on either side of the Atlantic for the fourth quarter will free the momentum for breaking out decisively.
Wall Street started last week with a major breakout for the S&P 500, but only with a neutral candle. Two weak candles after didn't continue strongly, falling back below the breakout level. The Dow behaved a little bit stronger, intraday even marking new all-time-highs above 11 600, but the two indices of not so large caps at the right hand side behaved much worse, small caps even plunging.
Three of the four Eurostoxxindices broke out last week to new longterm-highs, but then fell back, fighting the breakout levels from above. Only the Euro denominated broad Eurostoxx couldn't break the resistance above yet.
19. Jan 2007 Weekly summary Wall Street marked new all-time-highs for the Dow last week, but afterwards couldn't proceed further up, small caps leading the stock markets downwards. This doesn't mean yet an end of the steep uptrend since 2003.
The Eurostoxxindices still hesitate to break out decisively, but like in Wall Street this yet doesn't mean an end of the longterm uptrend since 2003. The midterm uptrends since summer last year likewise remain intact.
Wall Street starts the year 2007 mixed, the decisive first two trading days and the first two weeks as well. But two strong candles at the bottom of a correction, only a questionable in between, lead to Thursday's attack onto the high of December, however for the S&P 500 only with a weak candle, the other three ones steep and neutral. Again the Dow relatively is the closest to destroy any resistance of last month, ie. to another breakout to all-time-highs. The other three indices still have to fight massive resistance zones.
The Eurostoxxindices restart their strength on Thursday as well, four steep neutral candles launch an attack onto the many years-highs of earlier this year.
12. Jan 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street resumes the uptrend, but still has to fight resistance from December above. There is a higher chance for strength in the first quarter than last year, when roaring first two trading days and first two weeks destroyed any chance of strength for the whole first half of 2006.
The Eurostoxxindices relatively are stronger than Wall Street and closer to a major breakout, resuming the uptrend since 2003.
Wall Street starts the year 2007 with a continuation of the flat downtrend since mid December. 2007's first two trading days are mixed, with a weak candle - for the Dow a neutral one - being neutralised by a strong candle on the second day.
The Eurostoxxindices start the new year with a breakout of strong bottom patterns, started after Christmas. In 2007 a first steep neutral candle only leads to a weak one on the third day. So we need a confirmation of the strength over the weekend.
5. Jan 2007 Weekly summary: Wall Street resumes the flat downtrend since December, a typical correction of the long uptrend since 2003. The Dow still is relatively the strongest sector, this correction already being directed upwards. This leaves the chance for more shortterm strength ahead.
The Eurostoxxindices start the new year by resuming the long uptrend since 2003 with a breakout from a strong bottom pattern.