The  goldprice continues the breakout of a strong bottom pattern. Even the psychological resistance at 900 is fought down in the first attempt. There only is a minor chance, that $/EUR will be contained by 1.50.
| 15. Jan 2008 Summary: The goldprice continues the longterm uptrend, since the Christmas break even steeper than before. This means strong pressure of the Dollar onto the support built up in the last quarter of 2007. |
| The goldprice terminates the build up of a strong bottom pattern with two strong candles after Christmas. The weak one of the last trading day of the year 2007 reflects the resistance at the high before Christmas, which such is enforced. But this may turn out as a trend enforcing correction, after which the breakout to a new all-time-high succeeds. | 1. Jan 2008 Summary: The goldprice attacks the high of the year 2007 and tries to resume the steep longterm uptrend. This would terminate the trials of the Dollar, to stabilise against the Euro and most other currencies.
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The goldprice terminates the steep decline of November by building up in December a strong bottom pattern. Monday's strong candle even is a breakout, attacking the falling upper resistance line of the midterm neutral wedge, which was built up since the first steep decline of November.
We have difficulties to interprete the strength of the goldprice and the weakness of the Dollar economically. The USA grew in the two summer quarters by 4.28 % annualised, the Eurobloc less than half of this by 2.06 % and Germany by 1.88 % only. Japan even declined by – 0.18 %, hammered by stronger than expected deflation, which became obvious only by the latest revision last week. | 11. Dec 2007 Summary: The goldprice still shows no charttechnical sign of a major top pattern. Conversely, there even is the danger of large fluctuations adding up to a trend enforcing correction half way up in a longterm uptrend. So the support for the Dollar built up in December against the Euro and some other currencies may turn out fragile as well.
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| The goldprice terminates the decline with a strong daily candle at the bottom. But this strong candle close to the technical target of this decline (with a correction upwards half way down) was located too high to be of type one-day-reversal. The evolving bottom pattern thus is not of the strongest type, but strong enough to lead to an attack onto the high of early November. After a one, two or three days correction this restistance could be overwhelmed easily. | 27. Nov 2007 Summary: The goldpricestarts to terminate the correction since early November, neutralising a weak top pattern by a strong bottom pattern. The resistance at the high of early November is as fragile as the support for the Dollar's cross currency rate against the Euro and the other european currencies. We don't see any chance for Europe to overcome the deceleration effects for the economies. |
| The goldprice corrects, but unless the old breakout level below 800 $ isn't broken, this is a correction only, after which there is even more power to rise again steeply. Conversely, the Dollar has fallen to historic lows against DM / Euro, destroying any longterm support. The same holds for the trade weighted Dollar index. | 13. Nov 2007 Summary: The goldprice starts an overdue correction, even falling out of a small 'descending triangle', but this is no sign of a turn around to weakness yet.
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| The goldprice broke out on Friday from the correction since mid October and continues to rise steeply. This leaves the Dollar no chance to stabilise against the Euro and hence against the major currencies. Note that the Dollar now even has fallen to a historic low against the DM, below that of the early 90th at 1.36 DM/$. We think that the major reason for the decline of the Dollar are the huge costs of the ongoing war in Irak, which are not compensated for by the strength of the US economy. | 30. Oct 2007 Summary: The goldprice continues to rise steeply by breaking out from a huge correction since mid 2006 of the long uptrend, restarted in 2004. Interpreting this correction as one of type ,half way up', the technical target advances to high above 800 $.
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The goldprice broke out on Monday with a strong daily candle, thus terminating the hope for a major top pattern, built up in the second half of September and the first two weeks of October.
| 16. Oct 2007 Summary: The goldprice breaks out, leaving the US-Dollar no chance for a bottom pattern. Declining yield spreads of the Dollar against the major currencies contribute to the uptrend of gold. |
| The goldprice broke any resistance from this year, and even the remaining one at the old all-time-high from 2006. From a technical point of view even a price target of 800 $ cannot be excluded. | 2. Oct 2007 Summary: The goldprice rises further, driven up by declining yield spreads to the Euro and most currencies, now even for overnight rates, and a collapsing Dollar. |
| The goldprice terminated the correction of the long uptrend by a major breakout, breaking any resistance from this year and fiercely attacking the resistance at the old all-time-high from 2006. There now is only little chance for defending this resistance. | 18. Sep 2007 Summary: The goldprice turns up again, in tandem with the major breakthrough of the Dollar to new longterm lows against the Euro, the main reason being steeply declining yield spreads to the Euro and most currencies. |
| The goldprice terminates the correction of the long uptrend by breaking out above the falling upper resistance line of the downtrend of the last months. But there still is massive resistance above. For final strength gold needs to correct the steep shortterm rise since mid August. | 4. Sep 2007 Summary: The goldprice tries to turn up again, reflecting the ongoing weakness of the Dollar against the Euro. Note that falling yield spreads between these to currencies leave the Dollar little chance for a major turn around to strength. |
The goldprice terminates the correction of the long uptrend, starting an attack onto the year-high of June.
| 21. Aug 2007 Summary: The goldprice turns around to strength, fueled by the weakness of the Dollar against the Euro - and the strength of most commoditities. |
| The goldprice suddenly reverses its down- to an uptrend, even breaking the resistance at the top of June, thus bowing to the strength of the longterm uptrend - and the weakness of the Dollar. | 24. Jul 2007 Summary: The goldprice suddenly turns around to strength, attacking the resistance at the year-high of the second quarter. |
The goldprice terminates the correction of the long uptrend, starting an attack onto the year-high of June.
| 7. Aug 2007 Summary: The goldprice turns around to strength, fueled by the weakness of the Dollar against the Euro - and the strength of most commoditities. |
| The goldprice suddenly reverses its down- to an uptrend, even breaking the resistance at the top of June, thus bowing to the strength of the longterm uptrend - and the weakness of the Dollar. | 24. Jul 2007 Summary: The goldprice suddenly turns around to strength, attacking the resistance at the year-high of the second quarter. |
The goldprice continues the midterm downtrend, even after Monday's strong candle. The two moving averages move in conflict.
| 10. Jul 2007 Summary: The goldprice continues the downtrend after a ,double top'-pattern in April and May. This shortterm downtrend is in conflict with the still intact longterm uptrend. |
The goldprice started to rally last week until a majority of weak candles over the weekend continued the downtrend. Monday's weak candle even is negatively engulfing. But there is support around 650 $.
| 26. Jun 2007 Summary: The goldprice continues to extend the ,double top'-pattern of April and May to a downtrend, two sudden rallies since early June being fought off. But the longterm uptrend still is intact. |
| Since early April the goldprice falls out of the ,double top'-pattern of April and May into a downtrend, but the sudden rise in early June above the neckline of this double top reveals, that this by no means is a downhill battle. | 12. Jun 2007 Summary: The goldprice tries to extend the ,double top'-pattern of April and May to a downtrend, but the sudden rise of early June shows, that the longterm uptrend still prevails.
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| The goldprice has built up a ,double top'-pattern, the neckline of which at 672 $ already was destroyed. Two weak candles closing last week put pressure even on the fragile support level at 655 $. The two moving averages no longer rise in tandem. | 29. May 2007 Summary: The short-term stability of the Dollar against the Euro rises the chance for a major turn around to weakness of the goldprice, but the longterm uptrend still is intact.
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| The goldprice tries to develop a weak top pattern of type ,double top', but Friday's strong candle below an open gap denies a decisive breakdown. Monday's weak one is negatively engulfing, even closing this gap with the chance to continue the slump and destroy the support close to 672 $. | 15. May 2007 Summary: The short-term stability of the Dollar against the Euro gives the goldprice a chance for continuing the shortterm slump, but the longterm uptrend remains intact.
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| The goldprice tries to develop a weak top pattern, but this needs at least two more weak days this week and pressure onto the support level at close to 672 $. On the other hand, already one strong day could easily terminate any such chance for a turn around to weakness. | 1. May 2007 Summary: The weakness of the $ against the Euro leaves the goldprice only a minor chance to terminate the longterm uptrend.
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| The goldprice continues to rise, attacking the resistance at this year's high from end of February, when a sudden decline stopped it's shortterm strength. There is only little hope, that this resistance will bar gold from rising further to it's all-time-high. | 17. Apr 2007 Summary: The weakness of the $ against the Euro and more general to all currencies leads to the strength of gold.
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The goldprice stagnates, not being able to break the resistance around 660 $. But the chart pattern remains strong, a breakout being a question of days not weeks.
| 3. Apr 2006 Summary: The shortterm stability of the $ against the Euro leads to shortterm stagnation of the goldprice, but the weakness of the chart pattern of EUR/$ and the strength of that one of the goldprice speaks for breakouts, the goldprice attacking it's longterm high of mid 2006. |
| The goldprice stabilises after the plunge of end of February, were turmoil in the world capital markets rudely interrupted the steep uptrend. The chart pattern, built up after the fall below 640 is a ,neutral wedge', turning into a strong ,ascending triangle'. | 20. Mar 2007 Summary: The turmoil of end of February, originating in mailland China's stock market, is terminated, leading mysteriouly to a plunge of the goldprice. The weakness of the Dollar now revives the uptrend of gold. |
| The goldprice interrupted the shortterm uptrend with a weak three day's top pattern at 688, but that one was not of the type to drive the goldprice substantially downwards. Monday's neutral candle even tries to stop the new shortterm downtrend, but not convincingly. | 6. Mar 2006 Summary: tries to support the embattered stock markets, by stabilising the Euro/Dollar rate but there yet is no powerful enough top pattern to be seen, to stop it's mid- and longterm uptrend. |
| The goldprice tries to terminated the new uptrend since the plunge in early January, but even three weak candles do not yet break the sharply definied uptrend channel since. The resistance level at $ 660 is broken, the resistance above isn't very stable. | 20. Feb 2007 Summary: Correction after correction try to stop the shortterm uptrend, but the longterm uptrend still is too stable to end the steep rise.
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| The goldprice tries to fight the new uptrend since the plunge in early January, but technically there is no top pattern yet to be seen. At least there is some new resistance level at $ 660. | 6. Feb 2007 Summary: Still it is impossible to conclude, whether this is a correction, after which a second rise atttacks the highs of mid 2006, or already an end of the steep rise. |
| The goldprice reverses a plunge by a steep rise, but this now is overbought and needs a correction to extend further up. | 23. Jan 2006 Summary: There is no end to the longterm uptrend yet, even if corrections will stop the shortterm uptrend. |
| The goldprice suddenly turns around to weakness, this time reflected by 640, and develops a shortterm top pattern. But its longterm chart pattern by no means is as weak as that of the energy prices. So the fall of Euro/Dollar below 1.30 has not the same dramatic consequence as that of the energy prices below major their support levels. | 9. Jan 2007 Summary: There is a new correlation between the energy prices and the goldprice. So we get a correlation sequence
energy » commodity indices » gold » Dollar/Euro ,
where only the last part is a classical correlation.
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| The oilprice ( bottom left ) fell back, after breaking out to a new all-time-high. The psychological barrier 100 was too strong to be broken by the first attack. But there is only a minor chance for a top pattern with some potential downwards. The CRB-commodity index broke out in the second week of 2008 to a new all-time-high. The steep rise out of a 'rising wedge' opens further pressure upwards. | 15. Jan 2008 Summary: The oilprice stagnates, driven back by psychological resistance at 100 $. But the CRB-commodity index follows the goldprice, breaking in the new year any resistance from 2007.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) terminates the correction and attacks the all-time-high of December, even if three weak daily candles, closing the year 2007, enforce the resistance there considerably.
The CRB-commodity index rises too, although after Christmas a little less dramatically as before. But three weak daily candles, closing the year 2007, are no threat to the uptrend yet. | 1. Jan 2008 Summary: The oilprice rises again, the same procedure as for the goldprice - and most commodities. This drives the CRB-commodity index further upwards. So the year 2007 ends as it began - with a steep uptrend of the commodity prices and no technical sign of an end of this disaster for most econonomies worldwide. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) corrects once more, this time by falling even below 90 $. But this correction shows no technical sign of a turn around of the longterm uptrend to weakness yet. So it may turn out as a (n up)trend enforcing one only.
The CRB-commodity index turns around to strength again and attacks the fragile resistance above 460 at the all-time-high of this summer again. The steep neutral candle of Monday considerably accelerates the rise. | 11. Dec 2007 Summary: The oilprice still corrects, having destroyed massive support above 90 $. But the strength of the other commodity prices, driving the CRB-commodity index to new highs, may turn this correction only short-lived. Note that a mild winter only will contribute to a swoon in energy prices if it turns out to be milder than the last one.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) terminated a correction by breaking out once more to all-time-highs, thus turning this correction into a strong bottom pattern.
The CRB-commodity index rises again, thus attacking the - fragile - resistance at the all-time-high of early November. | 27. Nov 2007 Summary: The oilprice and more general the CRB-commodity index even signal more technical strength to continue the steep longterm uptrends.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) declines on Monday, but even the steepest version of the uptrend, started by a breakout in October, isn't under scrutiny yet.
The CRB-commodity index starts a correction, but four weak daily candles after another breakout to new historic highs are not enough to break the longterm uptrend. Even Monday's plunging candle throws the oilprice only back onto a rising support line of the shortterm uptrend. | 13. Nov 2007 Summary: Neither the oilprice nor the CRB-commodity index show charttechnical signs of a major turn around to weakness. If there are corrections - overdue after a steep rise - these may turn out to be trend enforcing ones only.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) continues to rise steeply, after breaking out from a correction in late September/early October. Even the whole year 2007 may be seen as a huge correction of the longterm uptrend since early 2002. If this correction is one of type ,half way up' the technical target advances high above 110 $.
The CRB-commodity index continues to rise steeply after even two major breakouts from strong bottom patterns in October. | 30. Oct 2007 Summary: The oilprice continues to climb, now even above the first technical target. The CRB-commodity index broke out on Monday again, resuming the uptrend of September, with a charttechnical target considerably higher.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) terminates the trend enforcing bottom pattern, built up in October - a major breakout with the strong candle of Monday and a technical target much higher.
The CRB-commodity index broke out on Monday as well with a strong daily candle, thus resuming the longterm uptrend. | 16. Oct 2007 Summary: The oilprice broke out on Monday, resuming the uptrend of September, with a charttechnical target above 90 $. The CRB-commodity index resumes the uptrend since early 2002 with a major charttechnical breakout on Monday, thus terminating the chance for a top pattern. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) broke out from a correction bottom pattern in August, starting from a strong weekly candle and breaking the resistance at the old high in the second week of September. The correction since last week is no hope for a top pattern.
The CRB-commodity index is driven up by energy, precious metals and some food commodities. | 2. Oct 2007 Summary: The oilprice enters another consolidation, but as those of the last years, this is a trend enforcing one, stabilising the uptrend considerably. The strength of the world economies - with rising demand and shrinking supply - continues to drive the CRB-commodity index up, and even the Goldman Sachs index is starting to rise out of a deep consolidation. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) broke out and started a steep rise in mid July. The falling wedge of August has been a trend enforcing consolidation only.
The CRB-commodity index corrected as well, but then attacked the old all-time-high of this year and easily broke it. The fight for strength is won by a major breakout. | 18. Sep 2007 Summary: The oilprice broke the resistance at the all-time-high of 2006, starting to rise steeply in unchartered territory. The odds of the world economy with rising demand and shrinking supply drives the commodity indices upwards, the CRB now having broken the resistance at early August's all-time-high as well. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) broke out and started a steep rise in mid July. The falling wedge of August now turns out to be a consolidation only.
The CRB-commodity index suddenly fell out of a dangerous shortterm ,rounding top' and ,descending triangle'. After arriving at the technical target in mid August, the index rises again, but so far has arrived only at the bottom neckline of these chart patterns. So the fight for strength not yet is won. | 4. Sep 2007 Summary: The oilprice terminates a shortterm correction and attacks the resistance above. This, however, is quite strong. The CRB-commodity index has built up a stable top pattern and still has the chance to stabilise a downtrend and terminate the longterm uptrend. But strength in the upcoming week can destroy this resistance - and the hope for lower prices.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) continues the steep breakout to new year-highs, after a trend enforcing correction.
The CRB-commodity index falls back after a failed attack to break the year-high, but the mid term chart pattern is a strong ,ascending triangle'. | 21. Aug 2007 Summary: The oilprice still rises in a steep uptrend channel, even enforced by the correction of last week. The CRB-commodity index builds up a strong chart pattern, with more potential upwards after a successful attack onto the upper bound of which. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) continues the steep breakout to new year-highs, after a trend enforcing correction.
The CRB-commodity index falls back after a failed attack to break the year-high, but the mid term chart pattern is a strong ,ascending triangle'. | 7. Aug 2007 Summary: The oilprice still rises in a steep uptrend channel, even enforced by the correction of last week. The CRB-commodity index builds up a strong chart pattern, with more potential upwards after a successful attack onto the upper bound of which. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) continues the steep breakout to a new year-high from the very strong bottom pattern of the last two months. The CRB-commodity index falls into a weak three-days-pattern, but as long this fall remains above the top of June, this is no sign of a major turn around to weakness.
| 24. Jul 2007 Summary: The oilprice fiercely attacks the remaining resistance at the all-time-high of the year 2006. The CRB-commodity index tries to stem against the strength of the energy prices, but as long as this a mere pull back onto the broken resistance (now support) level of June, this even may enforce the longterm uptrend. |
| The oilprice ( bottom left ) breaks out to a new year-high, from the very strong bottom pattern of April and May. The resistance from 2005 was easily broken. The CRB-commodity index now rises substantially as well, heading for the high of June. Including the two little corrections in the fall of late June and the rise of July, a strong bottom pattern is building up. | 10. Jul 2007 Summary: The oilprice resumes the uptrend, heading for the absolute highs of last year. We expect a severe fight against the resistance up there. The CRB-commodity index rises substantially as well, but here too there is some resistance at the high of June.
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| The oilprice ( bottom left ) continues a steep breakout from the strong bottom pattern of April and May. But there still is a little hope, that resistance from 2005 at the present level will lead to a major top pattern. The CRB-commodity index broke out off a strong bottom pattern, but sudden weakness last week, triggered by strong resistance above, drove the index back even below the rising support line of June. | 26. Jun 2007 Summary: There still is a little hope from old resistance, that the breakout of the oilprice with high momentum doesn't extend to a substantial rise from the present crucial level. At least the CRB-commodity index suddenly reversed it's shortterm strength. But both longterm uptrends still are intact.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) fails a third time to breakout of an ,ascending triangle'-pattern, which, however, remains intact.
The CRB-commodity index slowly develops a strong bottom pattern, but the large fluctuations of last week reveal, that the resistance above still is strong. | 12. Jun 2007 Summary: The oilprice fails to breakout above the now very strong resistance level between 66 and 67. The minor chance for a shortterm multi-top chart pattern remains open, but that for a longterm top pattern as well. This keeps the CRB-commodity index in an intact longterm uptrend, with the growing risk of shortterm strength. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) suddenly falls back, after attacking the resistance at the year-high and narrowly destroying it. Therefore the - fragile - chance for a shortterm ,triple top' grows. The CRB-commodity index marches sideways, stabilised by strong resistance above and strong support below.
| 29. May 2007 Summary: The oilprice fails to breakout above the two highs of the last three months. Hence the chart pattern is at risk. Longterm weakness may be overthrown by shortterm strength - if the chance for a ,triple top'-pattern fails by a sudden rise. This keeps the CRB-commodity index inside a sharply defined sideways trend channel. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) suddenly collapsed after breaking out to a new year-high and destroying massive resistance. But the chart pattern since early April is not of type top. The CRB-commodity index continues to slump in the flat downtrend since mid April - most daily candles are weak now, but the support above 400 is massive.
| 15. May 2007 Summary: After breaking out to a new year-high, the oilprice fell back. But strong support above 60 $ bars the easy way down. The CRB-index was hindered to breakdown out of a top chart pattern by strong support in mid April. So far it couldn't yet build up new strength. |
The oilprice ( bottom left ) finally breaks out to a new year-high, destroying strong resistance. The CRB-commodity index stagnates, building up strong resistance above and support below.
| 1. May 2007 Summary: The oilprice continues the rise inside a sharply defined uptrend channel since mid January. However, it's weak longterm chart pattern still is intact. Meanwhile very strong resistance decelerates the longterm uptrend of the CRB-commodity index. |
| The oilprice ( bottom left ) stagnates, but this shortterm sideways movement only enforces it's midterm uptrend channel since mid January. However, it's weak longterm chart pattern still is intact. The CRB-commodity index has to fight strong resistance at 410, support for that fight coming from consolidations of some explosions of commomodies outside the energy sector. | 17. Apr 2007 Summary: The oilprice rises again, fueled by the strength of the uptrends of it's derivatices, but barred by some shortterm resistance from last month. Resistance also tries to stop the longterm uptrend of the CRB-commodity index.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) broke out from a very strong bottom pattern, destroying strong resistance at 64 $. The CRB-commodity index still stagnates, even building up a shortterm top pattern with two helpfull weak candles over the weekend.
| 3. Apr 2007 Summary: The oilprice rises substantially, breaking out of a strong bottom pattern - a very strong one. But the CRB-commodity index still doesn't follow suit, being contained by shortterm stagnation of some metals. This, however, may be shortlived. |
| The oilprice ( bottom left ) is stopped by massive resistance around 60 $. The flat uptrend of this year thus is terminated, but the chart pattern not yet is weak again, a rise from this level easily could reanimate the strong bottom pattern. The CRB-commodity index tries to terminate the sudden downtrend since end of February by three stable day's over the weekend. But this not yet terminates the weakness of the chart pattern, where a broad top pattern still remains possible. | 20. Mar 2007 Summary: The oilprice declines, but somewhat lonely among the major commodities. For the CRB-commodity index there still is the chance of retreating further, but this demands a substantial fall below 400.
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| The oilprice ( bottom left )still is in an shortterm uptrend, but has entered the broad resistance zone from end of last year. Monday's sudden decline reflects fighting in there, but the shortterm uptrend still remains intact. The CRB-commodity index suddenly reverses it's uptrend, but there is no top pattern to be seen yet. | 6. Mar 2007 Summary: The oilprice still is moving up, but the uptrend has become flatter since in January and early February. The CRB-commodity index fell victim to a blow-off, which it corrects now by falling back to the support level at 400.
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The oilprice ( bottom left )still consolidates the steep rise from it's low in January at 50 $. There is resistance around 60 $, but the chart pattern gets stronger day by day. The CRB-commodity index rises steeply, the two steep candles closing the week destroying any resistance from this year. Friday's candle even is very strong.
| 20. Feb 2007 Summary: The oilprice still moves up in a strong shortterm chart pattern, but the dangerously weak longterm one still gives hope, that the actual resistance zone finally will stop the rise. For the CRB-commodity index there is no longterm help against a further rise, except some resistance, but the Goldman-Sachs commodity index shows the same weak chart pattern as the energy prices. |
| The oilprice ( bottom left )finally terminated the plunge with a classical bottom pattern at the low. The rise after even has broken the massive resistance at $ 57, the low of November. The CRB-commodity index moves up like the goldprice, having already broken the resistance near 392, i.e. at the lower bound of a resistance zone of end of 2006. | 6. Feb 2007 Summary: The oilprice has turned around to strength, with more than a technical correction upwards. But there remains the possibility that the resistance zone of end of 2006 may stop this steep rise. The CRB-index likewise tries to break a broad resistance zone. |
| The oilprice ( bottom left ) plunges out of a broad top pattern in the second half of 2006. The CRB-commodity index tries to overcome the plunge out of the broad top pattern of the fourth quarter 2006, but there are no technical signs of a major return to strength around the low of mid January. | 23. Jan 2007 Summary: The oilprice plunges in January, no end to be seen yet to the shortterm weakness. The CRB-index tries to terminate a plunge out of a technical top pattern, but the shortterm uptrend still is under scrutiny.
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The oilprice ( bottom left ) suddenly destroyes the supporting neckline of a strong bottom pattern, plunging even below the major support level at 57, following the weakness of the oil derivatives. But we need more weakness this week in order to finally destroy this support. The CRB-commodity index suddenly reverses its shortterm uptrend downwards. This new shortterm downtrend even terminates a weak shortterm top pattern, albeit not one of the weakest type, by a breakthrough downwards.
| 9. Jan 2007 Summary: The oilprice tries to breakdown below the neckline of the huge top pattern of the year 2006. Other than in winter 2005/2006, which was a very cold one on the northern hemisphere, the mild winter 2006/2007 gives the oilprice the chance for breaking this level decisively. This weakness hopefully overwhelmes the longterm strength of the CRB-index. Note that the Goldman-Sachs commodity index already has developed a weak top pattern with a major breakdown below the neckline. |
Heavy fuel oil terminates the attack onto the all-time-high of the fourth quarter of 2008. Let's hope that demand in the northern hemisphere for the rest of this winter will stay below its longterm average.
Gazoil (bottom left) terminates this attack as well, but here too there is no indication yet that this will be sustainable. | 15. Jan 2008 Summary: Both oil derivatives continue consolidations, but so far there are no signs of charttechnical top patterns. At least they underpin the reluctance of the oilprice to continue the longterm uptrend.
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Heavy fuel oil terminates the plunge of end of November, following the other energy prices upwards, but considerably more hesitatingly because of massive resistance up to the all-time-high of November.
Gazoil (bottom left) terminates the consolidation of early December by a breakout to a new all-time-high in the last trading trading days of 2007. | 1. Jan 2008 Summary: Both oil derivatives rise again, Gazoil-Diesel even with a new all-time-high, crowning a year of technical strength with a major breakout.
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Heavy fuel oil terminates a deep correction, but on the way up there now is massive resistance, barring the easy way up.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) still corrects the steep rise since the summer by destroying a massive support level, the remaining support below being more fragile. | 11. Dec 2007 Summary: Corrections far above shortterm technical targets lead to contradictory behaviour for the two oil derivatives. Heavy Fuel Oil turns around to strength again, but Gazoil-Diesel even strengthens the decline - probably because of having climbed too far against too mild a winter on the northern hemisphere. |
Heavy fuel oil follows the uptrend of the oilprice, resistance of late usually wiped off immediately after.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) still corrects the steep rise since the summer, but this correction will turn out to be short-lived as well, even enforcing the uptrend. | 27. Nov 2007 Summary: Corrections far above shortterm technical targets even enforce the uptrend for the two oil derivatives. Above the old all-time-highs there is no indication for an end of the blow-off, which finally will have drastic consequences for growth in most western economies and in Japan. |
Heavy fuel oil starts to correct the long uptrend and the steep midterm one since early 2007, but from a technical point of view there is no sign of a general turn around to weakness.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) starts the same type of correction, but here too there is no technical sign for an end of the uptrend. | 13. Nov 2007 Summary: Even corrections far above shortterm techical targets do not underpin a new downtrend of the oilprice yet. The relief for the world economies may be short-lived.
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Heavy fuel oil continues to rise steeply even above a first technical target.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) continues to rise steeply, but still below a first technical target. | 30. Oct 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives continue to rise steeply, thus contributing to severe growth considerations for the worlds economies.
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Heavy fuel oil continues to rise steeply with a technical target far above.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) now broke out as well from a strong bottom pattern, built up in the last two months. Here too the technical target is to be searched for considerably higher. | 16. Oct 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives confirm the steep uptrend of the oil price by marching in uncharted territory upwards without any chance for technical top patterns.
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Heavy fuel oil broke out from a strong bottom pattern, the correction of the last week being a trend consolidating pull back onto the broken resistance level.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) continues to rise substantially, a strong weekly candle enforcing the uptrend considerably in uncharted territory above the old high. | 2. Oct 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives continue their breakout from strong bottom patterns, Heavy Fuel Oil now marching above the old highs. No chance for technical top patterns can be seen yet.
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Heavy fuel oil breaks out from the falling wedge of the second half of August, now arriving at the all-time-high of early August.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) already has broken the corresponding resistance, rising steeply in uncharted territory. | 18. Sep 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives continue their breakout from strong bottom patterns, Heavy Fuel Oil attacking the resistance at the all-time-high of this summer.
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Heavy fuel oil breaks out from the falling wedge of the second half of August, but the major breakout from a strong bottom pattern in early June resumed the longterm uptrend again.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) follows suit by breaking out of a shortterm downtrend channel, correcting the major breakout of early July. | 4. Sep 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives broke out from strong bottom patterns in early July, consolidating the steep longterm uptrends in August. The resistance above from this summer is not strong enough to terminate the longterm uptrend.
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Heavy fuel oil abruptely is driven down as well, but strong support at 335 stops the new downtrend early and even has been enforced in the last two weeks.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) extends it's downtrend since mid July and presses onto the strong support level at 625, which has been enforced considerably in the last two weeks as well. | 21. Aug 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives fall back, but there are no stable top patterns yet. The fight against stable longterm uptrends has to go on, with the chance for another breakdown being the highest for gazoil.
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Heavy fuel oil continues the breakout to new highs steeply - no sign of a shortterm correction after the breakout yet.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) corrects the break- out to new absolute highs - this being no threat to the steep uptrend yet. | 7. Aug 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives don't rise in tandem any longer, the lonely correction of Heavy Fuel Oil being no sign for an end of the rise of the energy prices.
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| Heavy fuel oil continues the dangerous breakout to new highs steeply. Gazoil ( bottom left ) corrects the breakout to new absolute highs, but this is no threat to the steep uptrend yet. | 24. Jul 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives rise steeply in intact uptrends with new absolute highs in gruesome chart patterns.
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Heavy fuel oil breaks out to a new year-high, easily breaking the upper resistance level of the strong bottom pattern since mid April.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) continues it's rise out of a strong bottom pattern. | 10. Jul 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives rise in steep uptrends with high momentum. For Gaz Oil there still is a little resistance at the absolute high of 2006. |
Heavy fuel oil still fights against the upper resistance level of the strong bottom pattern since mid April.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) succeeded in breaking out of a strong bottom pattern, by breaking the strong resistance at this pattern's upper bound. | 26. Jun 2007 Summary: Heavy Fuel Oil still has to fight strong resistance, but Gaz Oil follows the breakout of the oil price with high momentum. There thus is little hope, that the uptrend of energy could be stopped now. |
Heavy fuel oil remains inside the shortterm downtrend channel since early May, which remains in conflict with the longterm uptrend.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) failes to continue the sudden breakout of a strong bottom pattern in early June, diving back even below the breakout level. However, the chart pattern didn't loose its strength completely. | 12. Jun 2007 Summary: The chart patterns of both oil derivatives are contradictory. One still is strong, the other is weak. But in both cases the longterm uptrends still are not broken.
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Heavy fuel oil attacks the high of early May in still an intact uptrend.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) follows suit by building up a strong bottom pattern and attacking it's upper resistance level from mid April. | 29. May 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives continue to rise in intact uptrend channels, attacking resistance from the last two months. |
Heavy fuel oil continues the steep rise inside it's uptrend channel since mid January, even if declining last week.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) threatens to follow suit by building up a shortterm bottom pattern and attacking it's upper resistance level, even if weakness last week destroyed the lower bound of the sharply defined uptrend channel. | 15. May 2007 Summary: There is little chance that the oil derivatives will prevent the oilprice from turning up again. At least there is no pressure upwards from the commodity universe outside the energy sector.
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Heavy fuel oil breaks out to a new year-high, thus prolonging it's uptrend channel since mid January.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) doesn't yet follow suit, since strong resistance at 600 $ still bars the easy way upwards. | 1. May 2007 Summary: The strength of Heavy Fuel Oil now even threatens it's weak longterm chart pattern to fail. Gaz Oil is at risk as well, the technical strength of Heavy Fuel Oil and the oilprice itself being overwhelming. |
Heavy fuel oil continues the breakout from a strong bottom pattern upwards.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) follows suit, the uptrend since mid January even being a little stronger. | 17. Apr 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives attack the weakness of their longterm chart patterns, which now are in danger to fail.
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Heavy fuel oil broke out from a strong bottom pattern, breaking a major resistance level close to 260.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) follows suit, the resistance at 550 being broken to pieces.
| 3. Apr 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives now show the same dangerous chart patterns as that one of the oilprice. All remaining resistance above dates from 2006 only. For all three the strong quarterly candles of the first quarter conflicts with the still weak longterm chart patterns. |
Heavy fuel oil tries to breakout from a strong bottom pattern, by fiercely attacking the upper major resistance level at 260. A strong week abruptely terminated any chance for a continuation of the shortterm decline.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) follows suit with a strong weekly candle, the decisive resistance at the magic number 550 starting to be under pressure. | 20. Mar 2007 Summary: Both oil derivatives do not support the decline of the oilprice, but threaten to breakout to much higher prices. This contradiction must be solved this week.
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Heavy fuel oil rose steeply until Monday started a correction back to the magic number 250. This enforces the resistance above, but also the support below without yet terminating the shortterm uptrend.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) shows nearly the same chart pattern, Monday's fall reflecting strong resistance at the magic number 550, but also inside the resistance zone of end of last year. | 6. Mar 2007 Summary: Like the oilprice the two oil derivatives have entered the resistance zones of end of last year, where they have to fight to continue the uptrends since mid January.
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Heavy fuel oil rose steeply after the low of January. This rise was interrupted by strong resistance of end of the year 2006, but the fight goes on.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) shows the same chart pattern, but the penetration of the resistance zone above 525 shows, that the rise since the low of January is more than a mere correction of the midterm downtrend. | 20. Feb 2007 Summary: Like the oilprice the two oil derivatives correct their steep rise since the low of January. There is no shortterm top pattern to be seen, but the resistance here and above is a little stronger than that one of the oilprice.
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Heavy fuel oil plunges since mid December out of a broad top pattern.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) have turned up, following the turn around of the oilprice. But there is a little technical difference - Heavy Fuel Oil yet has broken the resistance at the lower floor of the resistance zone of end of 2006. | 6. Feb 2007 Summary: Besides a little technical hurdle for Heavy Fuel Oil, both oil derivates march along with the oilprice - upwards.
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Heavy fuel oil plunges since mid December out of a broad top pattern.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) plunged as well, but the strong candle lf last week tries to stop this and correct the oversoldness. | 23. Jan 2007 Summary: Both oil derivates plunge along with the oilprice, the strong weekly candle of gazoil being a technical sign for a correction, but not yet a major turn around upwards.
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Heavy fuel oil broke the major support level close below 250 and is on the way downwards out of a broad top pattern.
Gazoil ( bottom left ) shows the same broad top pattern, perhaps a little less weak, with its neckline at 525 broken. | 9. Jan 2007 Summary: Whereas the oilprice still has to fight to consolidate its breakthrough downwards, both oil derivatives already failed to hold major support levels of broad top patterns.
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