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| Stock Links Home EuroStoxx | Wall Street earlier comments |
 Two strong candles, closing the week, try to build up support against the short-, mid- and longterm downtrends. But they are located to high to be of one-time-revesal. So they may be swallowed next week, as happens these days to strong candles around the world. | 18. Jan 2008 Bi-Weekly Summary The japanese stock markets execute the dangerous top patterns, built up in the second half of 2007. We interpret this sad sagging picture as adaptation to the weak economics, where now even the export is at risk. |
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But Deflation Picks Up to an Unacceptable Level The GDP-deflator accelerated further downwards below zero from a revised –0.30 % in QI, over – 0.01 % in QII to –0.20 % in QIII. Deflation remaines at –0.56 % for a full year - after –0.68 % in QI and only –0.36 % in QII. So deflation even accelerates to a too unacceptable high level for sustainable growth ahead. Nominal growth declines from 0.52 % in the first quarter, over – 0.45 % in QII to +0.17 % in QIII. +1.48 % for QIII remain low after anemic 1.20 % in QII for a full year. This still is the japanese desease, softened only marginally. Older results were mainly revised down for the growth rates, up for deflators. Even these low growth rates are in danger to be revised further down in the coming years. Therefore a real shrink rate of – 0.46 % is overwhelmed by +0.37 % in the third quarter, considerably below the high level of 0.82 % of the first quarter, which was a worldwide exceptional quarter starting 2007 with a wrong signal. So 2.05 % yearly real growth is the main good news this time, after too low 1,56 % in the second quarter. The declining japanese stock markets describe the japanese desease correctly in a world of still growing economies. The contemporary surge of the Yen reflects more unwinding of short positions and carry trades, not strength of the economy, besides being a correction of the longterm downtrend against the major currencies. | 8. Dec 2007 Japanese growth indicators for QII 2007 ( including drastic revisions of growth rates and deflators many years back ) 2003: –0.64% 0.09% –0.26% –0.86% 2004: –0.25% –0.11% –0.04% 0.06% 2005: –0.67% –0.42% –0.30% –0.29% 2006: –0.22% –0.33% –0.01% –0.04% 2007: –0.30% –0.01% – 0.20% are the quarterly GDP-deflators 2003: –2.42% –1.25% –1.14% –1.67% 2004: –1.28% –1.47% –1.25% –0.34% 2005: –0.76% –1.07% –1.33% –1.66% 2006: –1.22% –1.13% –0.84% –0.60% 2007: –0.68% –0.36% –0.56% are the yearly GDP-deflators 2003: –0.43% 0.74% 0.51% 1.60% 2004: 1.08% –0.19% 0.31% –0.08% 2005: 0.66% 1.14% –0.34% 0.78% 2006: 0.46% 0.79% –0.11% 1.30% 2007: 0.82% –0.46% +0.37% are the quarterly real GDP rates 2003: –1.29% –1.13% –0.99% 2.43% 2004: 3.98% –3.02% 2.81% 1.11% 2005: –0.68% 2.02% 2.06% 2.94% 2006: 2.73% 2.39% 1.93% 2.47% 2007: 2.84% 1.56% +2.05% are the yearly real GDP-rates 2003: –1.07% 0.82% 0.25% 0.73% 2004: 0.83% –0.31% 0.27% –0.03% 2005: –0.02% 0.71% 0.04% 0.49% 2006: 0.23% 0.46% –0.11% 1.26% 2007: 0.52% –0.46% +0.17% are the quarterly nominal GDP-rates 2003: –1.16% –0.14% –0.16% 0.72% 2004: –2.66% 1.51% 1.52% 0.76% 2005: –0.09% 0.93% 0.70% 1.22% 2006: 1.48% 1.23% 1.07% 1.85% 2007: 2.14% 1.20% +1.48% are the yearly nominal GDP-rates |
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| Stock Links Home EuroStoxx | Wall Street start |
| Two weak days closing the week after Christmas terminate a correction upwards for three of the four indices, whereas the fourth one, the Nikkei OTC, still corrects the long decline upwards. But this index is the weekest in the mid- and long run with technical midterm target below 1600. Since early November for the other three indices dangerous 'head with shoulders' are under construction, with crippled second shoulders. These pattern are embedded in larger ones of the same type, built up since July, and these in turn are embedded in the longterm ones since 2006. This russian 'Matroshka' principle, say 'Mary in the Box', can lead to a crash, which already is under way for the two bottom indices of small caps, although in an early flat version. | 28. Dec 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary There only is little chance for a major bottom pattern for three of the four indices, and for the Topix of large caps this chance dwindles day by day. For the Nikkei OTC of small caps the mid- and longtern downtrends since the summer resp. since early 2006 remain intact, the technical target of which not yet being arrived at. For the three Topix indices the risk of huge top patterns grows considerably, the 'necklines' of which being close by. We havn't seen chart patterns of this weakness since years. Thus we revise our technical targets downwards to 1200 for the two indices of large caps (top) and for the Topix of small caps even below 1000. This weakness is due to deflation and weak growth - see below. |
| Two weak days closing the week terminate the steep uptrend since the bottom of November, but parallelics doesn't yet signal intact shortterm downtrends. This shortterm stability is in conflict with the longterm weakness, a situation which parallels that one of the Yen against most major currencies. | 14. Dec 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary There still is a chance for a major bottom pattern for the two indices of large caps, but for the Topix of small caps and the Nikkei OTC index this chance is gone. From a longterm point of view all chart patterns are weak. The weakness of japanese stocks reflects running deflation and ailing growth rates: Revised negative real growth – 0.18 %, the two summer quarters annualised, and sustainable GDP-deflation –0.42 % therein. This 'growth' compares to Germany's 1.88, the Euro bloc's 2.06 and the USA's whopping 4.30 %, not to speak of China and India. |
| Since last week Tokio's stock markets regain lost territory after breaking down out of shortterm 'descending triangles' at the most dangerous locations of which. Since there is no strong bottom pattern yet, this must be looked at as a typical bear market correction upwards. No index so far was able to break the falling resistance lines above the downtrends since July and for all four indices both moving averages decline in tandem, after devil-crossing each other in August. Parallelics shows for three of the indices the first two strong recrossings (out of six), for one index even only the first one. | 30. Nov 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Japan marches at the helm of the world's stock markets - downwards, reflecting ailing growth of only 0.44 %, the two summer quarters annualised, and sustainable GDP-deflation –0.36 % therein. This growth compares to Germany's 1.88, the Euro bloc's 2.06 and the USA's whopping 4.30 %. For the two indices of small cap stocks the longterm downtrend commenced in early 2006, for the mid caps there is a dangerous longterm 'descending triangle' and for the Topix of large caps the chart pattern only is marginally less dangerous. |
| Wednesday's and Thursday's eight weak candles ridicule the unconvincing attempt to stabilise earlier this week after breaking down out of shortterm 'descending triangles' the week before at the most dangerous locations of which. This holds for the three Topix indices, the Nikkei OTC even being weaker. We think that the weakness of japanese stocks reflects the weakness of the japanese economy, which depends entirely on exports with only negative domestic contributions. | 16. Nov 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary There is no way to escape from this: The japanese stock markets precede the western ones on the way downwards. The melt down is best seen from the weekly, monthly and quarterly charts, which reveal that the Nikkei OTC as the weakest index is dragging down the rest of the pack - even if for large and mid caps there still is support at the lows of mid 2006. |
| Thursday's four weak candles - a severe set back - raise the question of a weak shortterm descending triangle for the three Topix indices, as already has developped for the Nikkei OTC of (very) small caps. On a weekly basis the three indices still march in a neutral wedge, slightly shifted for the Topix of large caps in the direction of a midterm descending triangle. | 2. Nov 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary The still neutral shortterm chart patterns tend to change to weakness, which still is seen for the longterm chart patterns in the monthly and quarterly charts. Tokio's indices are relatively weaker than those of Wall Street and Europe, the weakness being obvious for the Nikkei OTC. |
| Thursday's four neutral candles - after four plunging days with sixteen weak candles altogether - are no sign of stability yet. At most they are the sign for a typical correction half way down, the second half of the plunge following after Oct/19. But even if this happens - this plunge is no crash, terminated til end of October. It is a correction, overdue after the steep rise since end of September. | 19. Okt 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Ahead of the western stock markets Tokio plunges. But this is a correction only, no crash. For three of the four indices there isn't any sign of stability yet, at most more support, but for the weakest index, the Nikkei OTC, there even is the possibity of a strong bottom pattern. |
| Wednesday's steep neutral candle, after the Fed's decision to ease, saves the Tokio stock markets from a breakthrough and builds up more support against such a major trend decision. But two weak candles closing the week start to remove the security distance to this support level, which already is nil for the Nikkei OTC. The weak monthly and quarterly charts reveal the risk - at least for the two small cap indices (at the bottom) there are established downtrends. | 21. Sep 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary The Fed's easing step brought a single strong day for Tokio's stock indices, but the resulting strong weekly candle for three of the four indices may turn out to be treacherous. |
| A sudden plunge on Wednesday terminates all attempts since mid August to stabilise after the plunge since mid July. Thursday's strong candles decrease the pressure onto the support below, but Friday's disappointing weak ones increase this pressure considerably. | 7. Sep 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stocks suddenly turn to weakness again. Thus they are relatively weaker than the western stock markets. |
| Tokio's stock markets try to end the collapse. But even a strong weekly candle for the Nikkei OTC, the weakest index, is not enough for a stable bottom pattern. The monthly charts wholly reflect the weakness of the two markets, with three of the four indices suffering in August a devil's crossing of the two moving averages. Something which anticipated the downtrend of the Nikkei OTC already in spring. | 24. Aug 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stocks try to escape a second plunge, but a week of rising prices doesn't yet exclude the second leg of a major plunge - if this week is a standard correction half way down. |
| Tokio's stock markets collapse, breaking on Friday any support built up since early January. The chart patterns of this years are ,descending triangles', for the small caps of the Nikkei OTC even worse, the long leg of which finally broken on Friday. | 10. Aug 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Meanwhile Tokio's stocks have lost any relative strength to the western stock markets, actually are in the lead on the way down. The potential for heading south has increased considerably in August. |
| Tokio's stock markets topple, after failing to complete strong bottom patterns successfully by breaking out. But the plunge, closing the week, leads to open gaps above Friday's weak candles, which may decelerate the plunge next week. Support below for all four indices may contribute to stabilisation next week. | 27. Jul 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stock fall back substantially. For the Nikkei OTC of tiny caps this confirms the midterm downtrends, with some support left below. For the other three sectors there now is a growing risk of charttechnical ,double tops'. |
| Tokio's stock markets slowly develop strong bottom patterns, except for the Nikkei OTC, the chart pattern of which still is weak. The Topix indices still are relatively as strong as those of the Eurostoxxindices, but less than those of Wall Street. | 13. Jul 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stock markets try to develop strength, by breaking strong resistance above. Large, medium and even small caps of the broad market still are relatively stronger than the small caps of the Nikkei OTC index. |
| Tokio's stock markets continue to turn around to strength. Especially Friday's three strong candles for the Topixes and one steep neutral one for the Nikkei OTC rise the hope for a breakout above the resistance close to the present level. Large stocks in the short run still are lagging the strength of small stocks, for which already a strong close on Monday will complete strong bottom patterns. | 29. Jun 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stock markets technically are stronger than those of the western world. Already a single strong day can complete strong bottom patterns and lead to a major breakout, and an attack onto the year-highs from spring. |
| Two strong days all of sudden in the last week turns the trend decisively up again, for all four indices. For the Nikkei OTC of very small caps even any resistance of late the last four weeks is broken, leading to a strong bottom pattern, best seen in the weekly chart, and turning the short moving average up again. For the Topix of small caps the chart pattern is very strong as well, but three strong days didn't suffice to break the neckline of this chart pattern yet. In case of the upper two indices there must be more than only another strong day in order to turn the chart pattern in the same way strong again. | 15. Jun 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stock markets are turning around to strength, this time large stocks lagging the strength of small caps. The weakness of the Yen against all major currencies contributes to this turn around, the stock market being a typical devaluation bourse. |
| Sudden strength in the last week turns the trend up again, at least for the Topix of large caps. This index even aims at the year-high of end of February. For the Topix of midcaps the chart pattern didn't turn by no means as strong, the strong resistance of the last three months is attacked but still intact. The chart pattern of the Topix of small caps even is a little less strong, that one of the Nikkei OTC of tiny caps terminates at least the downtrend without showing any sign of a return to strength yet - perhaps after another correction downwards. | 1. Jun 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary This behaviour of type ,hanging gardens of Babylon' doesn't yet speak for a sustainable turn around to strength. At least there is more stability now, with the possibility of more midterm weakness shifting to the background. However, if the large caps breakout above the resistance of the last seven years up to 1800, there may follow a major turn around to strength. |
| After attacking strong resistance above in early May, the japanese stock markets failed to breakout and then collapsed with meanwhile seven weak candles in a row. However, for the three Topix indices the midterm sideways- and the longterm uptrends still are intact. For the Topix of small caps the chart pattern already is weak, for the other two indices there still is the chance for a continuation of the uptrend. | 18. May 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Contrary to the western and asian stock markets the japanese markets decline, after a failed attempt to breakout in early May. The small caps of the Nikkei OTC even have terminated their longterm uptrends since 2003 - the first market to do so around the world. For the other three indices this is not yet clear. |
| The japanese stock markets continue to fight shortterm weakness. The Nikkei OTC of small caps already has lost this fight. It even attacks the low of last year, but the support there also comes from the high of 2004. Also charttechnical weak is the Topix small cap index, the support at the presend level being considerably less fragile. But large and midcaps still defend midterm sideways- and longterm uptrends. | 4. May 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Undoubtedly japanese stock markets are relatively weaker than the chinese and western ones, despite the weakness of the Yen to all currencies makes them devaluation markets. Even japanese stock byers shun their home stocks. |
| The japanese stock markets continue to fight shortterm weakness. The Nikkei OTC of small caps already has lost this fight. It even attacks the low of last year, but the support there also comes from the high of 2004. Also charttechnical weak is the Topix small cap index, the support at the presend level being considerably less fragile. But large and midcaps still defend midterm sideways- and longterm uptrends. | 20. Apr 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Undoubtedly japanese stock markets are relatively weaker than the chinese and western ones, despite the weakness of the Yen to all currencies makes them devaluation markets. Even japanese stock byers shun their home stocks. |
| The japanese stock market has to fight to escape the shortterm weakness since end of February, the weakest sector being the small caps of the Nikkei OTC. This weakness still is defined by the declining short moving averages. | 30. Mar 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary The japanese stock market seem to evolve as the only victim of the end of February shock in China. But on a longterm basis, the technical strength not yet has ended. |
| The upward movement of the preceeding week turned out to be a correction only, after which a second plunge drives the indices down to the support levels at the lows of that week. Thursday's neutral candles are totally outnumbered by weak candles and not enough to enforce this support. There are two open gaps above, which hopefully will decelerate the plunge. | 16. Mar 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary The japanese stock markets now are as weak as the western markets, Taipeh, Hong Hong and Singapur, relatively even a little weaker. There is no fight for stability like in Wall Street and mainland China. A glimpse at the monthly charts reveals, how excellently the shortterm weakness fits into the longterm chart patterns. |
| After having broken out to new year-highs a sudden taifun throws Tokio's stock market back downwards, with five weak candles in line. All four indices tumble even below the breakout level of mid February. Three of them have entered the resistance zone of end of January and early February, which now serves as a support zone - the Nikkei OTC of tiny caps already has smashed this zone to pieces, noteworthy support existing only considerably down the road. | 2. Mar 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stocks knuckle down to the sack of rice knocked over in China. But there remains a huge open gap above, which will be closed in future, the question being - when? Like on any stock market worldwide, we have to survive - a hopefully not black - Monday, the risk of a second leg of the plunge decelerating linearly after Tuesday. |
| Except for the Nikkei OTC of the very small caps, Tokio's stock indices have broken out to new year-highs, destroying the resistance levels of January and resuming the midterm uptrends since last summer. For these three indices even the longterm uptrends since mid 2003 are resumed. For the Nikkei-OTC every is different. The shortterm downtrend of 2007 has broken in mid February the midterm uptrend since last summer, which in turn had broken the midterm downtrend since early 2006. | 16. Feb 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stocks head for the highs of early 2006. The Topix of large caps already is fighting for a breakthrough. For this index the resistance there also stonewalls from the beginning of the millenium. Tokio's stocks have taken up steam, thus closing the relative strength gap to the western indices, the main reason certainly being the strong growth rates of the fourth quarter 2006. |
| After correcting the steep uptrend since mid January for a week, Tokio's stock indices are bound to breakout once more, thus resuming the uptrend since end November. On Friday the Topix Mid Caps already succeeded in breaking the last resistance, the other three indices still are fighting. The Yen has built up some support against further declines. However, the long downtrend remains intact, except for the swiss Frank, which nearly is as weak. | 2. Feb 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary Tokio's stocks are heading for the highs of early 2006, large caps in the lead. But even the small caps of the Nikkei OTC have terminated their plunge with a three months bottom pattern. The Yen remains weak against all currencies, even if european authorities try to talk it up. Comparison with the swiss Frank reveals, that the low interest rate level is the common denominator of that weakness. |
| After correcting sideways since mid December, the japanese stock indices since mid January broke out with high momentum. The small caps of the Nikkei OTC, now in the lead, start from a classical bottom pattern, the lack of which for the other three indices now costs momentum. Parallelics reveals intact shortterm uptrends for all four indices. The Yen continues to collapse, driven down by weak fundamentals against all currencies - look at the Yen / Yuan chart. | 19. Jan 2007 Bi-Weekly Summary On a shortterm basis japanese stocks have taken the lead among the international stock markets, especially the Nikkei OTC of small caps. This, however, is due to the backlog - see the monthly and quarterly charts. The Yen remains very weak against Euro, Franken and Sterling, and again against the Dollar, which is gaining strength for a major breakout. |
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