Nominal growth rates minus the amounts of the deflators, quarterly Nominal growth rates minus the amounts of the deflator, year to year Theory: The overwhelming discussion of a transition from a worldwide disinflationary trend to deflation directs the view to a mathematical phenomenon which adds two catastrophic developments to a very strong one: In Japan a nominal shrinking economy is turned into real positive territory by subtracting the (negative) deflator. But economically two negative developments can't add up to a positive one, there are drastic ,gedanken' experiments. Therefore a different formula for calculating ,real' growth from nominal growth is needed: Subtract the amount of the deflator from the nominal rates, which changes the ordinary procedure only if the deflators are negative. Results, which may be called factual or deflation adjusted growth, are shown above for the main economies and below for the Euroblock plus Sweden and Switzerland. The results are obvious in Japan, real growth is only a mathematical effect. The state of the japanese economy is made clear only if deflation adjustment is introduced properly. Germany and especially the Netherlands are in danger to follow, dragging the whole Euroblock down. The USA is far from that danger, Greenspan's fear concerns imported deflation. Theorie:
In Japan ist die Wirkung der Deflation klar zu sehen - sie steigt sogar nachhaltig. Deutschland und besonders Holland sind in Gefahr der japanischen Vorgabe zu folgen, was den ganzen Euroblock mit nach unten zieht. Am anderen Ende des Spektrums liegen eindeutig die USA - Greenspan's Furcht vor Deflation kann sich nur auf importierte Deflation beziehen.EuroBlock Economies
Nominal growth rates minus the amounts of the deflators, quarterly:EuroBlock Economies
Nominal growth rates minus the amounts of the deflators, year to year:
